Blake Murphy Sports Writing

So this is my March Madness Preview as posted on a Facebook note earlier, it’s already got some pretty good feedback/responses, which is kinda why I grabbed a blog site to begin with.

My NCAA Tournament Bracket
So, I wrote this entire thing while listening to Mitch Hedberg comedy. That guy is golden and so underrated.

Also, this is my first shot at a Facebook Note or other blog-style writing. It’s probably much too long and most won’t read it, but I encourage everyone who needs notes on a particular game to check it out. Although, as it went on, I got away from actual analysis. Whatever. I should also point out that no, I’m not a loser with loads of time. I actually wrote this gigantic thing in just over an hour (but for no reason so yes, I’m a loser). And yes, I have school work I should be doing.

Anyways, I figured publishing a note like this would be a lot easier than having the same conversations 100 times over the next two days while people figure out their ‘question mark’ games and try to devise a strategy for beating me. My strategy was pretty simple: I was conservative, didn’t have more than 2 upsets in a single bracket (tough in the midwest, and this doesn’t include the 8/9 game because that’s not really an upset). The thing I find best to do to is, when picking an upset, look to the next round. If the team you are picking to lose will likely lose in the next round anyways, go ahead and pick it (example: Louisville vs. Stanford, Stanford is a decent pick because either team will lose to Texas A&M in the second round anyways).

Also, I was stuck a couple times and to help make the decisions I asked my friend Kailie who knows nothing about basketball (except when to cheer for a touchdown), because knowing less is better. Sorry Kailie, but I had to make one change to our choices, but I’m sure you were right and it’ll bite me in the ass.

Here we go.

Round of 64
 (1) Florida d. (16) Jackson State. Pretty self explanatory here. Enjoy it Gators fan, because that’s all you’re getting from me.

(8) Arizona d. (9) Purdue. As much as I like the name Boilermakers, ‘Zona has the best starting 5 in college hoops and has more potential than any other team to get red hot. They could also go ice cold, but we’ll see. Also…Arizona is the best team to play with in March Madness 2007 if you don’t do substitutions, trust me.

(5) Butler d. (12) Old Dominion. OD is a really popular upset pick this year, because they’re a mid-major (people forget Butler is too) and because the 5-12 upset paradigm that has developed. I’m not buying it, using Bill Simmons “if everyone else does it, don’t” rule of betting.

(13) Davidson d. (4) Maryland. Really tough call here, Maryland is a great team, but Davidson has gotten hot lately, they’re underrated, and they have the son of “Dial It Up” Dell Curry, infamous for his 3-point shooting off the bench when I spanked Stu in NBA Jam Session. Also, Maryland has two rookie guards and Davidson’s strength is its full court press and how many turnovers it forces, so this is a good matchup for them.

(6) Notre Dame d. (11) Winthrop. I wanted Davidson, Winthrop, and Georgia Tech, but I couldn’t have three big upsets in one region so one of them had to give. Brady Quinn will lead the Fighting Irish to victory here.

(3) Oregon d. (14) Miami-OH. Even though I followed Miami-OH a lot towards the end of the season as they went from a sub-.500 team to a tournament team with mini-upset after mini-upset, the Ducks are a really well rounded team. Also, they could be my future Alma Mater.

(10) Georgia Tech d. (7) UNLV. Georgia Tech has been red hot lately, UNLV will be shaving points since they play in Vegas, and GT is ranked 10th in the nation on the Pomeroy Ranking (thanks Stu, that was the tiebreaker). Should be a great game. Oh, also, Crittenton is off the chain and could go top-10 in the NBA draft since it’s PG weak, but he’ll do the smart point guard thing and stay in school.

(2) Wisconsin d. (15) Texas A&M-CC. The Badgers have some ugly losses, but none to an Agricultural and Machinery Institute (read: farmer school).

Round of 32
 (8) Arizona d. (1) Florida. Yeah, unpopular choice here, but Arizona is the only team in the country that can match Florida’s top 5 with a better top 5 of their own. Unfortunately, the Wildcats have no bench and must get hot to win, but it’s a decent matchup for them. This could bust my bracket.

(13) Davidson d. (5) Butler. I had to pick one double-digit ranked team to make the sweet 16, and Davidson has the best two matchups to do it. Also, if the Old Dominion upset goes down, Davidson definitely wins this game. Come on Stephen Curry, string of 40-point games, please.

(3) Oregon d. (6) Notre Dame. Notre Dame sucks balls, and Oregon is sweet. Brady Quinn chokes.

(2) Wisconsin d. (10) Georgia Tech. I wanted to take G-Tech to win here as well, and Chris Bosh recommended it, but the Badgers are at least decent, and it’s tough to take another upset into the Sweet 16 from the same region.

Round of 64
 (1) Kansas d. (16) Niagra. No Juan Mendez this year, although Niagra does have a great freshman that could be Niagra’s first NBA output since Jack Armstrong. Yes, that Jack Armstrong, he coached them back in the day. And THIS is the best Sportsnet can do for a color commentator for the Raptors games. I couldn’t do it better? What about Dave Power, just screaming about sucking off Anthony Parker? I’d rather listen to that than Jack’s “professional” opinion. Eat me Jack Armstrong.

(9) Villanova d. (8) Kentucky. Really tough call here, so I went with the (much) better looking coach. Also, ‘Nova can really dial up the 3’s which is a great trait to have in this tournament.

(5) Virginia Tech d. (12) Illinois. Illinois shouldn’t even be in the tournament. Then again, VaTech shouldn’t be a 5 seed. This is NOT the traditional 12-5 upset, the Fighting Illini will be too focused on the retirement of their racist mascot “Silky the Indian.”

(4) Southern Illinois d. (13) Holy Cross. Sorry Bill Simmons, Holy Cross isn’t great and probably shouldn’t be here or a 13 seed. Also, the Salukis have a great name, and the short hand for their school is ‘so ill’ which speaks volumes.

(11) VCU d. (6) Duke. Ya, ya, Duke has great D and half the people reading this love them, and Coach K is great, blah blah. VCU is a communist school (‘commonwealth’), I hate Duke more than communism. Also, either team will be lit up by Canadian Levon Kendall in the next round.

(3) Pittsburgh d. (14) Wright State. Pitt is a really underrated team, even though they have some questionable losses (twice to Marquette, Louisville), but they have two great bigmen and Ronald Ramon, who is the identical twin of Timo Cruz, who we know from Coach Carter is clutch in one-and-done torunaments.

(10) Gonzaga d. (7) Indiana. Double white-wash coming up in this matchup, guaranteed. Neither of these teams are great, but I really want a Gonzaga/UCLA rematch from last year to see UCLA avenge it with a big ass spanking.

(2) UCLA d. (15) Weber State. Fuck yeah Bruins, I took you as the champs last year and you gave me Final Four. This year, I don’t have as much faith, because they have no big men, but Weber State has no basketball players so advantage UCLA.

 (1) Kansas d. (9) Villanova. Kansas is the best team in the tournament, enough said.

(4) Southern Illinois d. (5) Virginia Tech. This was a tough call but the Salukis seem to be legitimately the better team and I think Virginia Tech is overrated at a 5 seed.

(3) Pittsburgh d. (11) VCU. Like I said, Pitt is winning this matchup either way. This is the game that Levon Kendall gets on everybody’s “Second Round Sleeper” list for the draft as he puts up a dominating (for a Canadian) 10 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks.

(2) UCLA d. (10) Gonzaga. Rematch of last year but there will be no heartbreaking, gutwrenching, tear-inducing finish for the Zags. Unless you’re paying really close attention to the first 5 minutes of the game when UCLA ices it.

East Region – East Rutherford
Round of 64
(1) UNC d. (16) Eastern Kentucky. Last chance for Hansborough to get used to that Rip Hamilton mask before they face some real competition. Eastern Kentucky spent the entire weak listening to Ludacris and getting ready to “throw them ‘bows.”

(8) Marquette d. (9) Michigan State. This was a really tough game to call when I found out McNeal was out for Marquette. I figured he’d be guarding Drew Neitzel because Marquette would rather have a large guard handle him and try to out-athlete him and really contest him. Instead, Dominic James (one of my personal favorites) will probably have to guard him, limiting his own offensive production but he’s a great defender so he should also negate Neitzel’s awesomeness.

(12) Arkansas d. (5) USC. Here is my 12-5 upset, mostly just because I hate USC but also because Arkansas was supposed to be pretty good this year and disappointed, but showed a lot of signs of improvement towards the end of the season.

(4) Texas d. (13) New Mexico State. Really? “Easy Mac” Kevin Durant can’t handle a bunch of banditos? This is like the first level in an old-school video game where the jacked-up bad-ass super hero faces a bunch of pussy ass enemies in the first level (e.g. foot soldiers) to let you get used to the controls before fighting real opponents.

(6) Vanderbilt d. (11) George Washington. I’m back and forth on Vandy, sometimes I really like them and sometimes I really don’t. Upon further investigation, they’ve beat a lot of good teams, don’t have any astonishing losses, and force a lot of turnovers. They could do well, and they made Joakim Noah look like a punk bitch, which is fine by me.

(3) Washington State d. (14) Oral Roberts. Once again, a popular upset pick that I’m staying away from, even though Washington State isn’t that great and Oral Roberts is a funny name.

(7) Boston College d. (10) Texas Tech. Texas Tech is unspectacular, and Jared Dudley is the man. Dudley should own Tech pretty easily here.

(2) Georgetown d. (15) Bellmont. Roy Hibbert, please stay one more year in college. Your game will b e helped a lot, and you’ll win a national championship (if Durant doesn’t return).

(4) Texas d. (12) Arkansas. KD’s line: 41 points, 17 rebounds, just a hunch. Either way, there is no stopping this guy (except, to keep the game close and force Rick Barnes to lose it for them, but Arkansas doesn’t have the fire power to stay close).

(6) Vanderbilt d. (3) Washington State. I had every 3 seed in the Sweet 16, so one had to go, and Vandy’s long range ability and penchance for beating better teams makes this one the favorite.

(2) Georgetown d. (7) Boston College. As much as I love Jared Dudley, he’s no match for Georgetown’s stable of big men.

South Region – San Antonio
Round of 64

(1) Ohio State d. (16) Central Connecticut State. Really tough to go against Canadian sensation Tristan Blackwood, who should put up at least 20 points and impress people enough that he gets mentioned as that “potential Canadian to get drafted who doesn’t” next season.

(9) Xavier d. (8) Brigham Young. Reminds me of the Jenna Haze porno “Bring ‘Em Young” every time I hear the team name, because Dave used to love that porn (the guy was hot I guess). Anyways, Rafael Araujo went here so fuck BYU.

(5) Tennessee d. (12) Long Beach State. Sorry Snoop Dogg, but the LBC won’t be representing this weekend, but with an NCAA appearance and the Snoop tie-in, they could have a bright recruiting future. Tennessee is awful outside of Chris Lofton but he’s one of the top 20 players in the NCAA.

(4) Virginia d. (13) Albany. I’ll be honest, I don’t know much about either of these teams but this region was really conservative for me, and Virginia doesn’t seem that bad.

(11) Stanford d. (6) Louisville. Can’t go wrong picking the Cardinals here.

(3) Texas A&M d. (14) Pennsylvania. With a name like Acie Law the Fourth, shouldn’t he be playing for the Ivy League school? This will be Law’s warm up for a really good tournament run that should put him in the top-8 of this year’s draft.

(7) Nevada d. (10) Creighton. Really tough call here because Creighton got pretty good by the end of the season, but Nick Fazekas is a really good talent who is too unique to contain effectively, and Nevada’s supporting cast isn’t too too bad.

(2) Memphis d. (15) North Texas. Mean Green, Mean Green, Mean Green! Unfortunately, the Mean Green suck, although Stu claims they “could give some teams fits.” Ha ha, not the Memphis “Paper’ Tigers.

(1) Ohio State d. (9) Xavier. Xavier has nobody who can contain Oden if he gets hot, nobody who can really handle Mike Conley Jr., and no big men who can draw Oden out of the pain on the defensive end to create easy buckets, which is the best way to beat OSU.

(4) Virginia d. (5) Tennessee. Kailie picked this one because Virginia had the nicer sounding name (I guess she didn’t like Volunteers as a team name). I didn’t care about this game, either will be destroyed by OSU, and it’s a 4/5 game so doesn’t mean much with regards to points in a pool. Tough to go against Chris Lofton though.

(3) Texas A&M d. (11) Stanford. Again, it seems like Acie Law IV should be going to his opponent school. Instead, he’ll pick them apart and 2-step like that’s what’s up.

(2) Memphis d. (7) Nevada. I wanted to take Nevada here, especially after I made the first Memphis “Paper” Tigers joke of the season before anyone else could on Saturday (my dad didn’t get it though). In fact, nobody really gets it outside of sports sites, so I’ll explain: A paper tiger refers to something that appears much stronger than it is; with respect to the tourney, people use it to refer to the worst good team, Memphis plays in a bad conference and is already named the Tigers so it’s an easy joke to make. Unfortunately, they’re not that bad.

Sweet 16
(8) Arizona d. (13) Davidson. Yup, I’m taking Arizona to the Elite 8 mostly because of an article I read early season about Mostafa Shakur and because I like playing as them in March Madness. But really, if they can beat Florida, there is nobody to stop them until the Elite 8.

(3) Oregon d. (2) Wisconsin. I personally thought Oregon deserved the 2 seed more than Wisconsin, as they’re a deeper team and don’t have a tendency to go to sleep for long stretches. This would be a pretty fantastic game if it goes down, so here’s hoping.

(1) Kansas d. (4) Southern Illinois. S-A-L-U-K-I-S can say G-O-O-D-B-Y-E since they don’t have the pedigree to match up with Kansas, and nobody to stop Julian Wright (who I keep confusing first names with Brandon Wright of UNC, another favorite even though I dislike the ACC). More on Kansas in a bit.

(2) UCLA d. (3) Pittsburgh. I can’t believe I had the 1-4 seeds going to the Sweet 16 in two regions (West, South). This is a really tough bracket (2nd toughest after East), and I really like Kansas, UCLA, and Pittsburgh. UCLA is my favorite of the three, and have the guard play to beat anyone. The lack of big men could be troublesome against Aaron Gray, but the lack of UCLA turnovers and great game management should be enough.
(4) Texas d. (1) UNC. Really tough call here, but I love Kevin Durant too much not to do it. I know, pick with your brain, not your heart, but he’s my only “love” in the tourney (see: Dom James eliminated in 2nd round).

(2) Georgetown d. (6) Vanderbilt. Georgetown is too good, and they can shoot to keep up with Vandy and dominate them down low. Although somehow Vandy was a good matchup against Florida, they don’t match up as well against the Hoyas in my head.

(1) Ohio State d. (4) Virginia. Virginia just can’t match up, and they only got this far on the merits of a pretty name. OSU got here on the merits of a 35 year old freshman.

(3) Texas A&M d. (2) Memphis. Ok, now I’ll call them paper tigers. They don’t have the go-to guy necessary to combat a talent like Acie, and I envision TAM to be red hot at this point after big confidence boosting routs in the last two rounds.

Elite Eight
(3) Oregon d. (8) Arizona. Tough to take them this far and not put them in the Final Four, but I don’t feel comfortable with an 8 seed in there. March Madness video game be damned, quack quack.

(1) Kansas d. (2) UCLA. You know I think a team is good when I pick them over UCLA, who I have complete faith will win the tournament because I didn’t pick them to this year. Also, you know I think a team is for real after earlier in the season I swore I’d take them as out in the 1st round since it happened each of the last two years, but they are just way too talented, experienced, and comfortable together, and they have the 2nd best player in the nation in Julian Wright. UCLA also has ugly games once in a while, and it’ll probably happen once in this tournament.

(2) Georgetown d. (4) Texas. Toughest call on the bracket, I actualls JUST changed it this moment. Durant is good, but Georgetown is deep enough to keep the game close the whole time, and Barnes is a brutal friggen coach, and Augustin doesn’t seem 100% comfortable in late game situations.

(1) Ohio State d. (3) Texas A&M. I had trouble with this one as well. I don’t really like OSU, but I had a problem with only having one #1 in my Final Four, and besides, Mike Conley isn’t too much of a downgrade from Acie Law, plus A&M can’t match depth with OSU.

(1) Kansas d. (3) Oregon. Oregon is really only this far because of a pretty weak Midwest bracket and because I had Florida eliminated early. Much easier call here than on the other side.
(1) Ohio State d. (2) Georgetown. Better luck next year Georgetown. Unless, of course, Oden and/or Durant return, then you’re in the same position or worse. I know everyone wants to see OSU-Florida in the final, and OSU-Texas at some point, but dreams don’t come true.

(1) Kansas d. (1) Ohio State by a score of 77-73. A costly Oden turnover down the stretch (travelling anyone?) and early foul trouble make everyone question Oden as the #1 over Durant (which he shouldn’t be anyways), not realizing Oden needs at least one more year in college (more on this another time). I hated picking the same champion as Bill Simmons.

In conclusion, I’m happy with my bracket up to the Elite 8 where heart mixed with brain and everything was too hard to pick. I think my conservative strategy and carefully selected upsets will see me do well, but certain scoring systems could hurt me if there is a cinderella story like George Mason, but Davidson is the closest to that we’ll have. Enjoy the tournament everyone.

A little extra since I’ve been asked:

NIT Final Four: NC State, FSU, Air Force (Ones), and Syracuse, with Air Force winning it all.

Women’s Final Four: UNC, Tennessee, Stanford, and Duke, with Tennessee winning it all (Candace Parker baby!).