Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Toronto Blue Jays Season Preview, Part 2
Date: March 29, 2007
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: Pretty straight-forward, position-by-position preview for the 2007 Toronto Blue Jays.

Note: This is Part 2 of a two part preview.

Ok, so Part 1 of my preview got some decent feedback. A lot of people feel I was too harsh on the Red Sox, and that’s probably true. I just really hate that they’re the Yankees, but pretending not to be the Yankees instead of taking a “screw you, you wish you were us” attitude like the real Yankees. It’s not becoming, and it makes me player hate. Anyways, I should probably amend my prediction and bump them into the 86-88 win range and scale the Yankees back to 96-97, so consider this an admission of fault. Today, I focus on the pitchers and the overall outlook.

The Pitchers
Starters – The Guarantees
Roy Halladay. There is almost no point in writing anything here. He is the second most valuable pitcher in baseball (I rank him behind Johan because of statistics and the lefty factor), and the most imposing player on this team. He’s our franchise guy and said himself this is the best he’s ever felt heading into a season, which is BAD news for opponents. Injuries are not a concern since prior short seasons saw Halladay the victim of freak accidents rather than actual injuries. There is no question, if healthy, Halladay wins 20 games, has a sub 3.50 ERA, and is at least a top-3 Cy Young candidate.AJ Burnett. Uh oh, look out, seriously. This guy has always been good. Haters will dispute, but the dispute is always on the grounds of injury proneness (is that a word? Proneness? Pronetitude?) and can be brushed off like the dirt on Hova’s shoulders. Burnett took a really strong finish in 2006, added to it a changeup to mix with his fastball and curve, and a full offseason job shadowing The Doc. I can’t say for sure, but I’m confident the scowl AJ wears in the latest Jays commercial will turn to a smile as he wins 20 games and is alongside Halladay in Cy Young consideration, although with somewhat less legitimacy.

Gustavo Chacin. I hate putting him in the guarantees, but this #3 slot is his regardless because our next best left-handed starting option is starting the year at Double A New Hampshire (Ricky Romero). Chacin is now apparently an alcoholic, to accompany his portly stature, and is showing a lot of signs he may have spent the offseason with Sidney Ponson. I imagine Ponson’s catchphrase is “Are you gonna finish that?” which has kept Chacin to his previous weight. Hopefully Gus gets down to business this year and starts pitching more efficiently so he can know the feeling of a 6th inning.

Starters – The Question Marks
Tomokazu Okha. Tomo is all but guaranteed a starting role as our #4 guy this season and with that in mind I am introducing the Tomo-hawk, whereby all Jays fans rip off the Atlanta Braves’ tomahawk gesture whenever Okha gets a strikeout. I like it. Okha is a great pitcher and was an enormous steal this offseason at $1.5M, given that his numbers over the past three seasons are BETTER than Gil Meche and Ted Lilly. Unbelievable. He could be a real asset for us and shore up a questionable rotation. Here’s hoping.

Josh Towers. My boy is back and pitching extremely well. With the exception of one inning this spring, he has been almost unhittable. I’m not even joking here, seriously. He credits a lot of his early success to discussions with team veterans like Roy Halladay and Frank Thomas who have shed light on the fact that what’s done is done and he can’t change it, pertaining to last season and even every individual pitch. Towers seems hella focused and is carrying a chip on his shoulder, which could be great news. Keep in mind, too, that Towers has had bad years before and followed up strong. I really hope he gets the 5th rotation spot just to see what he can do. I should point out, also, that with a $2.9M salary he makes the most sense, financially, to fill the final rotation spot since he has a guaranteed big money deal.

Victor Zambrano. Zambrano is blowing minds right now. Less than 10 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Zambrano is at 100% health and able to throw 6 innings without discomfort. This is actually a wrench in the plans as he is very clearly capable of starting at the major league level but the team is still worried about him. The Brandon League injury frees up a spot, which could mean Vic starts the season in the pen while Towers gets a shot as a starter, and Big Z has reliever’s experience so we’re in good with this guy regardless. Cheap pick-up too.

Starters – The Contingency Plans
John Thomson has officially not made the team and is still having trouble with pain in his arm. I was hopeful he’d break camp with the team but there are only so many spots, and he’s pitched atrociously in spring training. I’m not sure of the details of his contract but I know it’s a minor league deal, so I don’t think we have to waive him, so he’s an option later in the season.

Casey Janssen and Shaun Marcum are options but will likely start the year in the bullpen, so more on them in the bullpen section.

Dustin McGowan, as always, has people excited by his potential. Unfortunately, this is his last option year and at age 25, it’s about time he shows what he can do. He’ll start at Triple A Syracuse and pray for an injury on the main roster to break through to the majors. I like the kid a lot, but it’s high time we see something from him.

Francisco Rosario will probably start at Triple A Syracuse, but Riccardi likes him more as a reliever because he can really pound the box. I could have said pound the strike zone, but pound the box is a lot funnier.

Scott Downs can spot start, but with the depth(?) we have here it’s unlikely unless we need a lefty to replace Gus because of injury. More on Scottie in the bullpen section.

Ty Taubenheim showed a lot of potential last year as a starter and out of the pen, but will start the year at Triple A. I’m not sure of his expected role there but I’d imagine he’ll get starter’s innings in case we need him. Excellent toss-in in that Overbay trade.

Bullpen – The Guarantees
BJ Ryan. Obviously set for the closer’s role, he claims back pains from spring training have subsided. Even though he is yet to pitch on consecutive days this spring, word is he’ll be ready to pick up the save for Halladay on opening day. While a sub 2.00 ERA like last year may be asking a lot, he is clearly a top-5 closer in the league and should be in for 40+ saves. I love his entrance music too, “Duality” by Slipknot.

Jason Frasor. His role is somewhat unclear, but he’ll obviously be in the pen. He struggled to start last year but finished extremely strong once called back up, and he has more experience than the rest of the bullpen. With League out, he should assume set-up duties and is probably the best suited of the bullpen guys to do so.

Scott Downs. I love Downs out of the bullpen and you should to, as his 2.77 ERA out of the bullpen last year points out. Downs is a great option lefty vs. lefty, for an inning of set up work, or to mop up innings, and can even start when needed. He is probably our most versatile pitcher, and is extremely underrated in his bullpen role. Should be another good year for Scottie “Downs, not Downe” Downs.

Bullpen – The Question Marks
Brian Tallet. It looks like, despite a pretty bad spring, Tallet will start the season as the resident mop-up reliever, occasional lefty match-up guy, and craziest fucker on the team. I’m interested to see what his opening day hair & facial hair combination will be. I’m not a big fan and his numbers aren’t great, but he gives us another lefty to bridge the gap to BJ and he can eat innings.
Note: Brian Tallet cleared waivers and was designated for assignment on March 29, meaning the Jays will likely only keep 11 or 12 pitchers on the main roster.

Brandon League. League will eventually rejoing the major league club but will start the year at Triple A to try and get his velocity back. Allow me to explain. League, feeling wear and tear on his arm, rested it for 8 weeks this offseason rather than 4 weeks, but kept working out with weights. This overdeveloped his right lat muscle, forcing him to release the ball from a lower arm slot. This has taken 6-8 MPH off his fastball and he hasn’t sniffed triple digits this spring, hitting 92 if he’s lucky. An injury briefly held him back as well. A lot of long toss should help to change his release point, but once again the Hawaiin surfing fanatic is held back from starting the year with Toronto. He was expected to be the set-up man, but uhh, I guess not, not for now anyways.

Casey Janssen. Normally at this point in spring training, if a guy is going to be assigned to the minors, he’ll be pitching starter’s innings to prepare him to start “down there.” Instead, Janssen has worked an inning of relief on consecutive days, sending a strong signal that he will start the season in the Jays’ bullpen. Haven’t seen him out of there much, but the kid has a lot of potential so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Victor Zambrano. There was more on him above, but as a reliever he can eat big innings, throw in a lot of craftiness, and give us a much needed veteran presence.

Shaun Marcum. I have heard almost nothing about Marcum this spring, so I apologize since I don’t have an interesting tidbit about him. I think the plan all along was for him to come out of the bullpen and I haven’t heard otherwise, plus he hasn’t been demoted yet so I’m working under the assumption he’ll be a reliever this year.

Jeremy Accardo and Francisco Rosario both have outside shots at cracking the bullpen, but it will depend how many relievers Gibbons keeps and if they keep Towers as a starter or not.

Bullpen – The Contingency Plans
Accardo, Rosario, Taubenheim, and McGowan are all possible call-ups. Geremi Gonzalez probably isn’t going to break camp and if he clears waivers he could end up with the club later in the season. Obviously, since we have extra starting pitching, Okha, Thomson, or Towers could all end up in here at some point too. Trying to figure out what reliever will get called up is kind of like trying to figure out which chick is the ugly one at 2:30am at Smijies.

The Overall Outlook
So now, the meat and potatoes of the article, my outlook for the Jays season as a whole. Well, I have to admit that I’m pretty optimistic. Our lineup, 1 through 9, is second in the majors only to the Yankees. Our rotation isn’t as bad as a lot of people are claiming as we have 6 pitchers who have broke 4.50 ERAs at some point in the last three years and a lot of young options who could pan out if needed. Our bullpen is a lot better with League around but we do have some experience and a couple of really good inning eaters in there.

The Lineup – The batting order will be Johnson, Overbay, Wells, Thomas, Glaus, Rios, Zaun, Hill, Clayton, with the only switches coming against lefties when Rios may hit 2nd or when Phillips catches, which could bump Hill to the #7 spot. If Jason Smith or John McDonald fill in, expect them to take the 9 hole, and when Stairs plays he’ll likely bat 5th and the order will move around him. Our defense looks really solid for this year and doesn’t have any holes. The biggest concern here is Glaus’ ability to play a full season at third base, given we don’t have a proven backup option. Upside is that we lead the league in runs, seriously, it’s possible. The downside is Glaus and Thomas have injury troubles and we struggle in the power department, forcing us to hit a lot of doubles and play smart, but we should produce a lot of runs even then.

The Rotation – Seriously, it’s not that bad. Halladay and Burnett are both top of the class. Chacin is a concern but a serviceable lefty and he could revert to his rookie form. Towers, Zambrano, and Okha provide three good options to fill out the rotation and all are proven major league pitchers. I do realize a lot of what I’ve said about the rotation hinges on “what ifs” and “let’s hopes” but I’m an optimist and I think, of the six or seven guys we could send to the mound, at least four will have good enough seasons to keep us in contention. Besides, no other AL East team has five strong starters.

The Bullpen – League being out and losing velocity hurts big time, but we have the depth to make up for it. Ryan is as close to a lights-out closer as you get (not to mention he is intimidating as hell and if I met him in person I’d probably pull an Ed Wuncler and “shit on myself like twelve times”). No bullpen is ever considered strong (except maybe the Angels), so being average here isn’t really a big deal.

The Outlook – I honestly have to say, I smell a Wild Card or division title. 95 wins is very much a possibility, but I’ll go with a 93-69 record to be a bit conservative. I think 93 will get the wildcard as the AL Central beats each other up all season. Games down the stretch are going to be batshit important this year, so it’s important the team stay healthy. We’ve got a really well balanced lineup with some good depth, a rotation that has a lot of potential (albeit a really low basement) and a decent bullpen. We’ve also got a few young stunnas in the minors knocking on the door like Curtis Thigpen, Russ Adams, Adam Lind, Dustin McGowan, and Ty Taubenheim.

It really should be a great season. The team just released their commercials on Rogers and they are every bit as funny as last year and follow the same “It’s Always Game Time” theme. Tickets are cheap, flex packs are awesome, and I really urge everyone to get out to the ballpark this year and support the team. Tickets are available online, at any Rogers video store, at Shoppers Drug Mart, and any Ticketmaster. The team needs support, especially if we want Uncle Ted to keep shelling out the money for a good team (we lost $21M last season). I’m not saying switch from Telus to Rogers, but get out to a few games; it’s cheap and a lot of fun, plus nobody can call you a bandwagon jumper when we make the playoffs.

Below are some links that might interest you for the upcoming Jays season:
The official Blue Jays site
The official Major League Baseball site
The official Minor League site, to track our young guns
A SkyDome seating chart
Schedule and ticket info
Toronto Sun Jays stuff

Enjoy the season everyone, hope you liked the previews. O-K, Blue-Jays, let’s…play…ball! Sing it with me now…