Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: 2007 NBA Playoff Preview
Date: April 21, 2007
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: The Raptors were a 3-seed…so this was obviously a long time ago.

Man, the playoffs this season look like they could be legendary. Look at me…legend…wait for it…ary! Last year’s playoffs were unbelievable as well, but they may have, more than anything, set up a lot of interesting storylines for the playoffs this year. I’ll start off by admitting I have no idea what’s going to happen this year. On my Facebook bracket I picked the Mavericks over the Pistons in the finals, and while I think the Pistons are a safe bet, the West is wide open. The Spurs have the experience, the Mavericks have the talent, the Suns have the hot-streaks, the Rockets have a healthy team finally, and the Lakers have Kobe. It’s really wide open, lots of good subplots, and I’ll break them down series by series.

Eastern Conference
Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Orlando Magic (8)
Our first glimpse of Dwight Howard in the playoffs will be a brief one. I’m really excited to see how the big fella reacts to the pressure of the playoffs and guarding Rasheed and Webber for four games, but given his demeanor and what he’s shown us so far it shouldn’t be a problem. The Pistons could, conceivably, use this series to give their worn out starters a little rest, and they have this luxury with a deeper bench than they’ve ever had. Orlando doesn’t have many weapons outside of Grant Hill and Hedo Turkoglu. Jameer Nelson can’t really create for himself yet, and Thunder’s offensive game is still raw and comes mostly off of putbacks and fast breaks. The main storyline here will be the return of Darko Milicic and Grant Hill to D-town, but it will be short lived and not very heartwarming. Pistons in 4.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Washington Wizards (7)
The Bulls did the Cavs a huge favor losing on the final night of the season, giving Cleveland the 2-seed. This isn’t exactly what I’d call a marquee rematch from last year’s playoffs. That series was one for the ages with a tonne of close finishes and a lot of jaw-jacking between teams. Unfortunately, the Wiz will be without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler for the entire series, giving them almost no chance of an upset here. Antawn Jamison has shown over the last month that, with the exception of his one 48 point game, he can’t put this team on his shoulders (they lost said game). They are very thin on both ends of the floor, and this series definitely won’t come down to a few missed free throws. Mostly, we’ll get the chance to see what kind of player LeBron has decided to be for the playoffs this year, and I really hope he’s going to be post-All-Star-break LeBron, and much more. This is a series where he could really leave a mark and send a signal to a second round opponent. Cavaliers in 4.

Toronto Raptors (3) vs. New Jersey Nets (6)
I’ve never had this much invested emotionally in a sporting event before. George St. Pierre defeating Matt Hughes for the UFC Welterweight Title ranks up there, and so does him losing the strap to Matt Serra. For comparison’s sake, I would rather watch GSP win and lose the belt 1,000 times than suffer the emotional roller coaster that is this playoff series. Raptor fans have been waiting a long time to make it back to the playoffs, and as much as we have collectively put on a strong exterior and a “screw Vince” attitude, every single one of us is worried like crazy. This series puts the Raptors in an “all or nothing” scenario for this season. On the one hand, if we win this series, we completely cleanse the franchise of any remaining Vince Carter feelings. If we lose, though, it makes the progress of this year seem minimal, as Vince still holds something over us and we’re still yet to get our vengeance. Non-Raptor fans have looked at this situation and asked “really, it’s that important?” To answer in a word, yes. This series means everything to this franchise and its fans. The main storyline here is very obviously Vince vs. the Raptors. Luckily, I’m pretty certain we have the talent and the depth to handle them. Mo-Pete generally gets up for games against Vince, defensively, and Anthony Parker is one of the best guard stoppers in the league. Jason Kidd can’t be neutralized, but TJ Ford will make him work on the defensive end and Jose Calderon is a great one-on-one defender. Richard Jefferson could be a match-up problem, but Joey Graham’s marked improvement over the last month has me optimistic. I would expect the Raptors to go down low early and often to Bosh, as the New Jersey bigs are foul-prone and they have no depth at the big positions. The key for the Nets will be to keep the games tight because they have three finishers. I can say one thing with certainty about this series, though: Bostjan Nachbar will have the nastiest dunk. Raptors in 6 (because I couldn’t handle a game 7).

Miami Heat (4) vs. Chicago Bulls (5)
I actually am stunned that the Bulls lost to the Nets on the final night of the season. I watched the fourth quarter and there was no sense of urgency at all. You know what was on the line? Facing the Nets or facing the Heat. If you can’t get up for a game like that, you’ve got to be worried; that was more of a playoff game than most playoff games. Instead, the Bulls draw D-Wade and Diesel, the defending NBA Champions. It’s an unpopular call, but I’m going with the Bulls in this series. The Bulls have legs that the Heat don’t. The Heat have a very old roster that had a lot of injury problems this season, and the Bulls are one of the most finely tuned athletic machines you’ll find. The Bulls have enough good defenders to throw at Wade, as Deng and Nocioni have both done well before while Kirk Hinrich absolutely gives Wade fits. Wallace is also the best in the NBA at containing Shaq and has a wealth of experience doing it. The final point is that the Heat have absolutely nobody capable of guarding Ben Gordon, which could prove huge in late-game situations. It’s a waste to have Wade guard him and leave Deng with a weaker defender, Jason Williams is much too poor a defender, and Chris Quinn probably isn’t trusted for playoff minutes yet. The series should be a good one, but the games might not be as close as the series as a whole. Bulls in 7 (and 7 only because D-Wade is involved).

Later Round Subplots
We could be looking at Heat/Pistons in round two, which would be huge for intensity. The other possibility, Pistons/Bulls, would probably be a better series as the teams match up really well. This series would also mark a ‘changing of the guard’ as the Pistons are probably looking at their last year or 2 of East dominance before handing the reigns over to the Bulls. Also, it’s a long shot, but Flash vs. The King in the Eastern finals is a possibility.

Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (8) 
Do people not realize that underdogs are underdogs for a reason? I swear to God that every tournament ever, there’s been one team that everyone jumped on as an upset candidate, and that’s Golden State this year. Sure, they handled the Mavs really well this season and Don Nelson created the Mavericks. At the same time, you’re looking at one of the historically greatest teams in NBA history, with great depth and no glaring holes. They’re also an extremely well disciplined and well coached team. They also, finally, have the necessary playoff experience to make a deep run. No chance the Warriors give them any trouble, but here’s hoping for a few big games from my boy Monta Ellis. Mavericks in 5.

Phoenix Suns (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)
A rematch of last year’s first round matchup that the Suns took in an exciting 7 game series. While the Lakers aren’t functioning as well this season and the Suns are the best they’ve ever been with Amare at nearly 100%, this should still be an excellent series. The Raja Bell/Kobe Bryant battle will get to see a second installment, and it’s always fun to see a good point guard pick Smush Parker apart. You can never discount a team led by Kobe Bryant as he alone is good for 2 wins in this series, especially since the Suns style is conducive to explosions from individual players. This is going to be a fast-paced and intense series and I promise that it’s well worth your time to stay up and watch these West Coast start time games, you will not be disappointed. Even though the Suns will win this series, they run into the same problem as last year, getting worn down by a first round opponent. Suns in 7.

San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Denver Nuggets (6)
The spotlight here will be on if Iverson and Carmelo have meshed enough yet to pose any sort of playoff threat. The answer is probably not, not against the Spurs, and that sucks for Denver fans who rightfully expect more than a 1st round exit out of this killer combo. At the same time, it’s a lot to ask for two of the best three scorers in the NBA to learn to co-exist and feel each other out in just a few months, so Nuggets fans should hold over these expectations to next season. The Spurs haven’t really lost a step despite aging, and Ginobili is back to the bench role he thrives in. Gregg Popovich has this team well prepared for every game, and as a strong defensive team I’m sure they’ll have an answer for Melo and the Answer. The Nuggets actually have the depth to require San Antonio to play their best players big minutes, and the Nuggets have an inside advantage with Camby/Evans/Nene cleaning up boards against Elson/Oberto. Oh wait…Tim Duncan. That makes this easy. Spurs in 5.

Houston Rockets (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
I have a sinking feeling that people will criticize this series for being a bore fest. Being a big fan of “system” basketball, though, I am looking forward to it a lot. The Rockets and Jazz are two of the best half court teams in the league, are both seriously underrated, and have multiple superstars each. These teams match up really well with the Jazz having enough big men to be able to hack Yao and still have offensive threats down low. Shane Battier’s defense is a key for the Rockets, as he’ll likely be asked to guard the duo of Okur/Boozer, but Chuck Hayes and Dikembe Mutumbo should provide ample support. The Jazz have a distinct point guard advantage, so look for Deron to outsmart Rafer Alston a lot, but the Rockets have an even bigger advantage at the off-guard with Tracy McGrady matching up with Gordan Giricek and Derek Fisher. The Jazz’s big approach should limit the damage McGrady can do defensively, but at 6’9” he’s well equipped to shift down and guard Kirilenko and Harpring. As is becoming evident, there’s a lot of interesting matchups here. I’ve got to give the edge to the Rockets because they have a better coach and because T-Mac is absolutely clutch. It’s too bad these teams will wear each other out, since they both have the potential to do damage in later rounds. Rockets in 7.

Later Round Subplots
The Spurs and the Suns will face-off in the playoffs for the second time in the Steve Nash era. Two seasons ago the Spurs handled the Suns easily, needing just 5 games to win the conference finals. It could be a different story this year, but I still think the Suns lack the mettle and half-court ability to handle the Spurs. The Mavericks will either face the Rockets (a great matchup for international relations with Yao vs. Dirk) or the Jazz (a great match-up at power forward with Dirk vs. Boozer/Okur). Either way both second round series should be off the hook, and the West finals will be awesome. We’ll have either the Mavericks vs. the Suns in a conference finals rematch and the next chapter in the Dirk-Nash story, or another chapter in the Texas Tangle, neither of which will disappoint.

Say what you will about the 2006-2007 NBA regular season, but the playoffs, like they were last season, could be legendary. The East match-ups aren’t great in the first round, but Nets/Raptors is enough intensity for me. No word of a lie, I was actually shaking writing about it. And every series in the West, first round through third, will be worth staying up late for. Dave, you’ll have to wait until your parents go to sleep and sneak downstairs to watch these games, since they will be on past your bed time.

Enjoy everyone, go Raptors!