Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: The Oden vs Durant Debate
Date: April 22, 2007
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: Boy, do I look good in retrospect on this one, or what? My friend Alex thought Greg Oden was the choice to make, I thought it was Kevin Durant. The debate ensued. Victory.

The Kevin Durant vs. Greg Oden debate has been one of the hottest topics of the college basketball season. People have looked left and right for sure signs that one will make a better NBA player than the other, and experts have written at length about each individual. What hasn’t been beaten to death, though, is an actual debate on this issue. So today, Alex Pennycook and Blake Murphy throw down in an intense debate: Who should be drafted first overall in the 2007 NBA Entry Draft, Greg Oden or Kevin Durant? Alex will be taking the Oden side, while Blake takes the Durant side.

Opening Statements
Alex: Franchise centers do not come around very often. Up until the Championship I was not prepared to label Oden with this tag. Of the games I had seen him play in, not once did I sit there and think that this guy is the next great NBA center. He would always make one or two great plays a game, but that was about it. He was supposed to break out in the tournament but always was hindered by foul trouble. Then against Florida, in the biggest game of his life to this point, he came out and dominated both ends of the floor against one of the best college teams of recent memory. If Oden didn’t play, Ohio State would have lost by at least 25 points. At the offensive end, Oden put up huge numbers while being guarded by fellow Top Ten picks Joakim Noah and Al Horford, and easily handled double teams on numerous occasions. He was even more impressive patrolling the paint on D. There is no way he had only 4 blocks, not to mention how many shots in the lane he caused Florida to miss. When he has to, Oden can be the best player in college basketball, and will have the biggest impact of any player out of the 2007 draft class.

Blake: 35.9 minutes, 25.8 points, 11.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.9 steals, 1.9 blocks, 47.3% field goal shooting, 40.4% on three point field goals, and 81.6% from the free throw line. Take a minute to look over those numbers and let them sink in. My platform supporting Kevin Durant will not be solely statistical, but there is no arguing with those numbers, it is the single greatest Freshman season in the history of college basketball. He is the first freshman ever to receive AP National Player of the Year honors. He has an NBA-ready body, has off-the-charts athleticism, a strong head on his shoulders, and the most NBA-ready game in college ball. He scored 30 or more points 11 times, recorded 20 double doubles, and his worst games of the season were on par with Greg Oden’s averages. Durant is a better shooter, scorer, and rebounder (as a small forward his activeness on the glass and rebounding ability are uncanny) than Greg Oden and has the ability to be nearly as capable a defender at the professional level. Keep in mind, too, that Durant has accomplished all of this with limited help from teammates and one of the worst coaches in the country in Rick Barnes.

Arguments
Alex: There is no debating which of these two players had the better freshman season. Oden missed games early in the season, put up worse numbers than Durant and one could point to the fact that Ohio State probably still would have been a top ten team without Oden. Durant carried a Texas team that exceeded all expectations until the tourney and was easily the most dominant player in the nation. It’s hard to compare the two’s numbers though because they played such different roles on their respective teams. Oden didn’t have to put up the same numbers as Durant. Ohio State had 4 players (Mike Conley Jr, Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler, Daequan Cook) that could easily put up double figure points compared to Texas who had two (A.J. Abrams and D.J. Augustin). The Longhorns needed the ball in Durant’s hands on every possession in order to create something at the offensive end. Oden didn’t have that luxury. Since he was surrounded by so many playmakers it should have been easy for him to put up huge numbers right? Unfortunately, the Buckeye offence didn’t run through Oden often enough, and when the 3 point shooting went cold, as it did in the National Championship, the Buckeyes struggled. The main criticism of Ohio State was that they did not get the ball to Oden enough against Florida. While the same argument can be made for Durant, KD had significantly more touches than Oden. With these contrasting styles it makes more sense to compare Oden’s stats to other great centers that have gone first overall in the draft. His freshman season is on par with those of Shaq and Patrick Ewing Sr. and easily better than those of Hakeem, David Robinson or Tim Duncan. I feel that this is one of the better indicators to determine what to expect from Oden as a pro. Defence and rebounding, that’s what wins game in the NBA, and Oden is superior than Durant in both of these areas. The only time I’ve seen someone have their way with Oden was in the Final Four game against Roy Hibbert, but Oden had to play very tentatively because of foul trouble. This issue will disappear as he matures. I believe that Durant will spend most of the time at the power forward position meaning that he’ll be defending mostly in the post. His body at this stage reminds me of Chris Bosh and it will take a couple years for him to bulk up and become a solid NBA defender. In the USC loss, Taj Gibson was able to use a variety of moves to get to the basket on Durant, which shows me that the defensive skills are a couple seasons away. Durant gets caught leaving his feet too early and needs to work on his footwork. Oden’s body is ready to battle in the post in the NBA and help out against dribble penetration. In addition to rock-solid defence, he’ll have no problem grabbing double digit rebounds from his rookie year onwards. The one consistent trend I noticed throughout watching him this year was his ability to come down with rebounds he had no business grabbing. It will take Durant a few seasons to get this point in these areas that Oden excels at.

Offensively, no question Durant is the more polished player, but Oden is no slouch either. He already possesses great footwork and can easily handle pressure in the post, which normally are the major issues with center prospects. We all know that he can score with both his left and right hand, and go strong to the basket or finish with a nice jump hook. His midrange jumper still needs work, however it always takes centers longer to develop there offensive games than everyone else. Oden is an extremely fluid athlete and has no problem running the floor. It’s clear that the true center is being phased out of the NBA game, especially at the offensive end, but I feel that with Oden it is safe that you can assume he’ll reach the 18-22 points per game level within his first few seasons. Even then, the ability to score is not an issue in the NBA. If guys like Jason Kapono and Kelenna Azubuike can put up 20+ points pretty much anyone can with enough touches. Last season the Raptors had no problem putting up point totals in the 100’s without a true #1 scoring option but couldn’t defend a girl’s high school team. It’s the teams like Detroit and San Antonio that can lock things down defensively who consistently win.

I don’t want to talk too much about Oden’s wrist injury, but it clearly hindered his performance throughout the season. In terms of his overall development, it probably helped because it forced him to improve his left hand and thus make him more dangerous offensively. He definitely favored his right hand and played tentatively the majority of the season. It seemed liked he only went 100% when he had too, like the end of the Tennessee game or the Florida game. When he does go balls out, it’s clear that he is the best player on the court.

Blake: As I alluded to before, Durant had the greatest Freshman year of all time…ever. Better than Magic’s, better than Bird’s, better than Michael’s. He is the greatest college basketball player at his age ever. You get that feeling just watching him, and when you look at his game-by-game output you can’t help but notice. I had the pleasure of watching “Easy Mac” in six games this year (by comparison, I saw Oden seven times) and every time I came away shocked at just how good this kid is. This never happened with Oden, except the final game of the season against Floirda. There are several reasons he should be taken with the first overall pick, regardless of who has it, in this year’s draft.

Foremost, Durant is a competitor. Sure, Texas lost in the second round of the tournament this year, but they were overmatched and outcoached. The loss didn’t stop Durant from playing like a winner and showing he has that certain pedigree all of the best players have. He didn’t shy away from a challenge all season, increasing his output in conference games and seeing no decline whatsoever in the Big 12 tournament or the NCAA tournament. In fact, Durant stepped up the most this year in games that mattered a lot, putting up 30 and 9 in their elimination game, 37 and 10 in the Big 12 championship (against the best team in the country, Kansas), 30 and 16 in the rematch against Texas A&M, a game the Longhorns desperately needed to win for confidence purposes after being beat by them earlier, and as a final example, 37 and 12 in an overtime loss to Oklahoma State that marked the turning point of the season for his club. Sure, they lost some of these games, but a lot of that comes down to support and coaching. Rick Barnes simply did not get the ball to Durant in the clutch, usually shutting down his touches with a few minutes to go. Don’t take this as a sign of a lack of faith, because it’s a sign of ignorance, in reality. Regardless of the actual success of the Longhorns team, even though their season was definitely a success given expectations, Kevin Durant stepped up when it mattered, won games for Texas that they had no business winning, and showed that intangible intensity all winners have. We know Durant is capable of carrying a team and dealing with the kind of pressure a franchise tag brings with it.

Still, we haven’t seen Durant’s ceiling. Kevin Durant lacked support from his team this year; DJ Augustine is a good point guard but very raw and unpolished, AJ Abrams only showed up to play on certain days, and the rest of the team doesn’t have a crack at sniffing the NBA. While Durant certainly isn’t guaranteed a good team at the NBA level, most of the “bad” teams in the NBA right now have at least one or two high-caliber players that could keep up with Durant on a talent level. This is because the ‘bad’ teams this year were mostly bad due to injuries or tanking, not a lack of talent. For example, Memphis has Mike Miller to spread the floor, Rudy Gay to compliment, and Pau Gasol as an inside threat. Boston has Paul Pierce to compliment, Al Jefferson down low, and a platoon of servicable point guards. Philadelphia has Korver shooting the ball, Dalembert inside, and Iguodala as the playmaker. I could go on, but the point is Durant will not be alone on the floor in the NBA like he was in college. He’ll be the number one option, without a doubt, but unlike this past year he’ll have someone to set him up and someone to give the ball to out of double teams. Furthermore, Durant was poorly coached; Rick Barnes is a notoriously bad coach who seemed more concerned with bringing Durant back than winning while he was there. Of the six Durant games I watched, I did not see a single play run for him in the final three minutes of any of those – Durant had to create for himself off of an offensive rebound to get a touch in crunch time. Granted, this means we don’t know how he’ll fare with the game on his shoulders, but it also means he could become an even greater force under a coach who knows how to utilize a star player (so here’s hoping Doc Rivers doesn’t get a hold of him). Durant’s ceiling, even without the added bonus of good teammates and a better coach, is still too high for any of us to really see. Durant improved remarkably throughout the course of the season, improving in conference play, then in conference tournament play, and then in the big tournament. His only two “bad” games were right near the beginning of the season but even then he put up Oden numbers and from February 20 on he didn’t score less than 20 points in a game. This kid kept improving and improving without the proper resources around him, so the idea of what he could do with some teammates or a good coach is mind boggling (or as Chaz Michael Michaels would say, “mind bottling…you know, when something is so out there it bottles your mind”).

I’m now going to look away from his college game and look at the type of role he will play in the NBA. Simply put, superstars are few and far between, and extremely valuable. Durant is a superstar, Oden isn’t; he’s a good center. I can’t discount the value of a good starting center, looking at the fact that the Heat, Pistons, and 3 Lakers teams all had a good one. However, the Pistons are a system team and have shown this year that a slow power forward can take the center role and be successful, and the other examples were all Shaquille O’Neal who is the exception, not the rule. The fact is that the NBA game has changed since the 50s and since the 70s and even since the 90s. While style change in the NBA can be considered cyclical to an extent, it’s at a point right now where a center isn’t all that important. Of the top 10 teams in the NBA right now (I should note 5 are from the East and one is the Raptors), only 4 or 5 have legitimate centers. San Antonio, Toronto, Detroit, Dallas, and Phoenix all use out-of-position power forwards or center platoons. Utah uses three power forwards in its starting lineup. Only Chicago, Miami, Houston, and Cleveland have legitimate threats at center, and only Yao Ming and The Big Aristotle can be considered franchise centers. On the other hand, every one of these teams has a go-to scorer that is not a center. I can’t discount the value of a center, as it’s the second toughest position to fill on the floor (point guard), but it’s also the least important in today’s game. Centers can’t take over a game, and rarely have the kind of jaw-dropping performances that are required to take a team to the next level. Kevin Durant, like Michael Jordan, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Tracy McGrady, and Luol Deng (soon, trust me), is a player who can take over a game at key times and truly create impossible matchups for opponents. Who in the NBA, except maybe Kobe, T-Mac, and Kirilenko, is going to guard Kevin Durant? I’d be perfectly comfortable with Antonio McDyess or Rasho Nesterovic on Greg Oden in the NBA, but there are maybe 5 guys in the NBA who will be able to guard Kevin Durant. To put it bluntly, superstars are more valuable than good role players. I’ll take 30, 6, and 6 over 18 and 10 from my franchise guy any night, because those extra points are probably coming in the 4th quarter, a time when it’s not safe to go down low either because of the risk of free throw shooting or the turnover potential (and easy double teams). Durant fits the mold of a franchise player in today’s game (as an imposing 3 or an undersized up-tempo 4) than Oden does as a half-court center.

One note I’ll also make is on the marketing side, although this should be the last thing on the mind of a general manager on draft day. Durant is infinitely more marketable than Oden. He’ll put asses in the seats, move jerseys, and have his own shoe by the end of his rookie contract. You can’t sell Oden’s mild mannered attitude, but you can put a hefty price tag on Durant’s intensity and character. Scorers will always be worth more from a financial point of view, especially game changers like KD. It’s something to think about, especially for smaller market teams.

Closing Statements
Alex: Now that he has declared, it’s pretty much a given that Greg Oden will go first overall in the draft and that he will be a great pro. I feel the worst-case scenario (aside from him suffering a career ending injury) would be to have another 1984 draft where Hakeem Olajuwon went first and Michael Jordan third (except in this case Durant would go second). The team making the first pick could be passing up one of the best players of our generation, but still probably end up with a Hall of Fame center. These days we define success in sports by number of championships. Durant has the game that will make him a superstar in the NBA, but Oden has the game that leads to titles. Think Kobe vs. Shaq now that they are apart. Kobe is the best player whenever he steps out onto the floor, puts up incredible numbers, but on a mediocre Laker team. Shaq doesn’t put up the eye-popping stats on a consistent basis but is the most feared player in the league and has the rings to show for it. Durant will likely have the better statistical career, but Oden is the cornerstone player that championship teams are built around. I’m not saying that Oden is the next Shaq, but I feel that when all is said and done he is going to have that same presence on the court.

Blake: The Oden/Durant debate is a contrast of styles. Oden supporters are the conservative, defensive-minded, play-not-to-lose type, while Durant represents a play-to-win, play-for-keeps mentality. Oden is going to be a great center in the NBA, and he will no doubt be the #1 pick in the 2007 NBA Entry Draft. There is almost no question about this. He’s the safe pick (which is huge for a bad GM looking to stabilize his reputation) and most of the worst teams in the league lack a center or have a young swingman to build around. It shouldn’t matter though. Kevin Durant is going to be the better NBA player, an enormous game changer, and a guy with a lot of finger bling by the end of his career. Stick him with just one complementary player or a decent coach and his ceiling stretches higher and higher. He’s a moneymaker, a prime time player, and the penultimate player to build a franchise around. There is nothing he doesn’t do well, nothing he can’t do for your team, and he holds limitless potential. Oden’s a great guy and a great center, but when we look back on the 2007 draft when looking at the best drafts of all time, someone like me sitting at their desk pumping out a blog is going to have a money piece to write on how some team took Oden over Durant. In 2007, the real draft lottery winner is probably picking second.

The NBA Draft is on June 28, 2007.