Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Thoughts on the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery
Date: May 23, 2007
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: Oden or Durant? More important than the question was who that question would fall to. It was Portland, and we all know how that turned out.

So, wow. Seriously, wow. Unbelievable happenings at the NBA Draft Lottery last night. The 14 non-playoff teams sat around waiting for 1 of 1,000 different combinations to be revealed awarding the #1 pick overall to some lucky team. This was easily the most hyped draft lottery ever, not just for the two ready-made franchise players but also to see if the amount of alleged tanking would pay off for teams like Memphis and Boston. Well, that wasn’t the case last night as the top three picks (the only ones determined by the lottery system) all went to teams going against the odds. The Portland Trail Blazers were awarded the #1 pick despite only a 5% chance, and they were followed up by the Seattle Super Sonics with similar odds. The Atlanta Hawks, the fourth worst team in 2006-07, claimed the third pick, dropping cellar dwellers Memphis, Boston, and Milwaukee into the 4, 5, and 6 spots, respectively. Not since 1993 have the three worst teams not received any of the top three picks, and it’s shocking to see it happen again. We can immediately see three things from the lottery:

1) Tanking doesn’t pay off, likely because of karma, as alluded to by Bill Simmons recently (although his karma scale was pretty arbitrary). There is no reward for trying to lose.2) The Western Conference will win the next 1,000 games against the Eastern Conference. Already possessing a clear dominance in regular season play, the West now sees two of its less spectacular teams receive enormous boosts, all but ensuring all eight West playoff teams will be extremely competitive.

3) Two franchises have been completely saved. Seattle has a rabid fan base when given a reason, and Kevin Durant is exactly that reason. Portland is a team struggling to get its fan base back after a few years as the Jail Blazers and Greg Oden is a huge chip in building a team of character players.

4) Well…we can’t count this as something we know. Whether or not David Stern has the power to rig the draft lottery is still up in the air. On one hand you could see that no major markets got the franchise players and assume Stern didn’t touch the ping pong balls. But I’m a skeptic. I look the other way and see three more things:

a. By ensuring no major team gets one of these players, Stern takes any heat off of himself as far as rigging accusations go.

b. Saving two struggling franchises eliminates two potential teams bound for Las Vegas, a city Stern is strongly against the NBA expanding to. If Seattle and Portland aren’t moving, that leaves only the Kings to worry about.

c. With all the talk of tanking this season, Stern has effectively punished tanking teams and shown that playing to win is always the best way to go (no guaranteed payoff for losing, and you don’t alienate your fans by winning). It also gives the league reason to revisit the lottery system, something that has been under a lot of fire the last few seasons.

So without going into great detail about the draft (because I’m short on time and don’t want you all to get tired of NBA Draft articles from me already), here’s a quick look at the lottery teams now that the balls have dropped.

Portland Trail Blazers
Obviously they are the biggest winners here, getting the #1 pick. The smart money is on them taking Greg Oden and moving LaMarcus Aldridge to the 4-spot, possibly moving Zach Randolph for a swingman to go with Brandon Roy and Martell Webster. Oden would be aided by the other big men around him to ease the transition as well as the strong vocal leadership of Brandon Roy that would allow Oden to be his passive self. I think this is stupid and you can refer back to the Durant/Oden debate Alex and I had for why. Durant is not only going to be the bigger star, but he also fits a need for them (Darius Miles’ career could be over with the state of his knee, and he isn’t a franchise type of player anyways). The Blazers either have two big men and have to trade their star, or they can make the better draft pick and have a core of Jack, Roy, Webster, Durant, Randolph, and Aldridge, which is a lot better than how the team would look if they went with Oden, put Aldridge out of position, and tried to trade extra pieces. Obviously the Blazers have no bad move here, and the franchise is essentially saved after coming full circle with the character problems.

Seattle Super Sonics
Their fate is in the hands of the Blazers here. It makes more sense for both teams if Durant goes 1 and Oden 2. The Sonics can re-sign Rashard Lewis and have a core of Allen, Lewis, and Oden. Alternatively, they could end up with Durant and do a sign-and-trade with Rashard for a core of Allen and Durant with some extra pieces built around them. I just can’t get away from the fact that the Blazers could hurt themselves and the Sonics by going with the safe pick (Oden). Obviously, a trade is always possible (for the picks, or Lewis for Randloph) so there are a million possibilities with these two picks. Seattle, like Portland, is saved. The franchise has an intense group of fans who will now have a reason to come back to the team with thoughts of the Payton/Kemp days. It’s probably unlikely Seattle will move now, as I don’t see how the city could not build a new stadium with a guaranteed superstar to fill the place.

Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are in a really tough place here. It could be worse, since if they didn’t get a top-3 pick they lost it to Phoenix, but finishing 3rd is bad for a shaky front office. The Hawks have drafted swingman after swingman over the past few years, making a mockery of the drafting process. They are still without a solid big man (Zaza Pachulia is alright, and probably better suited for the 4) or point guard but have a plethora of swingmen. There are a lot of trade possibilities here, including moving the pick. They have to be thinking Mike Conley Jr. here but 3rd is a bit early, so they could trade down in the draft. One scenario is that they deal the #3 pick to Portland or Seattle (so they can team Conley with Oden, like Oden wants) and acquiring a big man or point guard in the process. I was talking to Beeg and came up with the idea of trading the #3 pick and Marvin Williams (plus some salary) to Portland for Zach Randolph and possibly Jarrett Jack, or alternatively, the pick for Jarrett Jack and a future 1st. The Hawks are really stuck here, having been grilled before for not taking a guard when they need one, so even at #3 Conley might be the best move.

Memphis Grizzlies
They’re in much better shape than the other losers from the lottery. They still have a core of Tarrance Kinsey, Rudy Gay, and Pau Gasol. While they lack depth and a true point guard, they do have size (Pau), scoring (Gay), and shooting (Mike Miller). They’ll have a lot of trouble in the West still, but the #4 pick could be of some help adding a power forward (Al Horford, Joakim Noah) or Mike Conley if he’s available.

Boston Celtics
Wow, they’re screwed. Might as well start tanking again now. I don’t see any way Danny Ainge doesn’t blow up the ship and sell off all the older pieces like Pierce and Wally World. The team can still build around Jefferson, Gomes, Green, and Rondo, but all of those players are a way away still and only Jefferson is a prime player at his position. It’s time for the Celtics to completely recommit to a rebuilding process from scratch.

Milwaukee Bucks
Again, much less screwed here than the Celtics. They really weren’t that bad a team last year but they were hit with injuries and the tanking bug. With a core of Mo Williams, Mike Redd, Ruben Patterson, Charlie Villeneuva, and Andrew Bogut, the Bucks have the depth and skill to make the playoffs in the East. The #6 pick could provide some guard help (if Conley is still there), a star at the swing positions (Corey Brewer would be a great solution to their defensive issues and provide a spark off the bench behind Rub-n-Patt), or a project big man to team with Bogut while pushing Charlie back to small forward. The Bucks are in decent shape still if they can avoid injuries and keep Mo Williams around for a decent price.

I’ll break down the rest of the first round at a later time, but I just wanted to get some thoughts down on the state of the biggest winners and losers from the draft. With a lot of depth in this draft at every position except point guard, every pick from #3 on down is a pretty big question mark based on team need. I think we’ll see a draft a lot like two years ago (the Bogut year) where there are a lot of trades on draft day, some players slipping further than expected as teams draft for need, and Stephen A. Smith making an idiot out of himself at least once. I’d love some feedback on this topic, and anything that gets e-mailed my way I’ll throw it up on the site. Have a good one everyone.