Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Blue Jays Quarterly Review Part 1
Date: May 28, 2007
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: I can’t possibly comprehend how I thought there was enough going on in the 2007 Toronto Blue Jays season to warrant a two-part quarterly review. But here it is.

The first quarter of the 2007 Major League Baseball season is completed and things have been, well, disastrous for the Toronto Blue Jays. While the record doesn’t scream disaster, it certainly borders it when compared to the high hopes the team (and its fans) had at the beginning of the season. This team was projected to compete for the Wild Card in the American League, and perhaps even the AL East divisional crown. Instead, the Red Sox have all but clinched the division already and the Jays find themselves in a four team battle to stay out of the basement. Through 49 games the Bluebirds are 22 and 27 for a .449 winning percentage, good for third in the division. This record has them sitting 12 games back of division leading Boston, but only a half game back of the second place Baltimore Orioles. Unfortunately the Orioles are anything but a wildcard contender, so the Jays face a 7 game climb to reach the wild card favorite Detroit Tigers. The good news is that 7 games isn’t a lot with over 100 to go. The bad news is that the Jays could play .600 ball the rest of the season and still only finish with 90 wins, a total unlikely to secure a playoff spot.

So what has caused this major team shortcoming? You can probably point to injuries as the number one reason, as the Jays have had players spend an unbelievable amount of time on the disabled list. Victor Zambrano, Roy Halladay, Gregg Zaun, Reed Johnson, Gustavo Chacin, Brandon League, B.J. Ryan, and Davis Romero are all names currently on the DL, and Troy Glaus had joined them previously. For a better idea of the impact, that list of names include three starting pitchers, the set-up man and closer, another arm out of the bullpen, and the starting catcher and left fielder, plus occasionally the third baseman and best power bat. While this has obviously been devastating, this team should have the depth to perform better than they have with all of these absences. With regards to the starting pitchers, Halladay has only missed a couple starts and Zambrano shouldn’t have been in the rotation anyways. Chacin hurts as we have no lefty, but Marcum has stepped up in a big way to fill one of those holes, so really we have only lost one starting pitcher in the grand scheme of things. The bullpen has stepped up mightily as well, but Accardo and Janssen still don’t strike the fear into opponents that B.J. does, so he’s a big loss. League and Romero would have had to compete for their spots, so the impact of their injuries are really inconsequential. Reed Johnson going down is good for the franchise in the long term as it has not only allowed Adam Lind to get some major league experience, but also allowed Alex Rios to find quite a happy home as the lead-off hitter. Gregg Zaun’s injury hurts in the clubhouse more than on the field, as he was struggling a great deal anyways. So what is the point here? The point is that as much as injuries have hurt this team, every team has injuries through a 162 game season and this team has the depth (especially in the lineup) to deal with this kind of adversity in the short term, something they have failed to do. Some look at this list of injuries and say we’re lucky to be a .450 team, but I look at the impact of those injuries and the quality on the rest of the team (minus the rotation, of course, but that was pretty brutal to start the season anyways) and can’t help but think we should be .500 and still looking at a run for the wild card.So who’s to blame then? I could use my favorite scapegoat and rip into John Gibbons a little more for his terrible pitcher management and general lack of fundamental baseball knowledge, but I’ve talked about him at length and even he can’t be blamed for the whole season. No, instead the onus for the performance has to fall to the players who have been playing. Thus, with an overall team grade of C- for the season thus far, the rest of my Jays quarterly review will look at the performance of individual players, not unlike the yearly Toronto Sun season review of Toronto sports teams.

Note: When coming up with projected statistics, I generally just multiplied them by 3.5 to account for a 162 game schedule, but I also made small adjustments where I felt necessary due to anticipated changes in playing time and performance (e.g. Frank Thomas and most older players have slow starts).

The Hitters

Name: Matt Stairs
Grade: A
Key Statistics: 6 HR in last 11 games, .305 average, .394 OBP, 1 stolen base
Projected Statistics: 12 HR, 40 RBI, .290 average, 1 stolen base
Comment: The one stolen base tells the whole story for Stairs’ season. At age 39 he’s finally developed the wheels he was expected to have coming out of New Brunswick in the early 80’s. On the for real though, Stairs has been a wonderful surprise, especially as of late, chipping in to help the struggling Adam Lind fill in for Reed Johnson. Obviously not a long term solution, Stairs will continue to provide an experienced power bat as a fourth outfielder for his home country. Warning: 6 home runs in 11 games does not warrant picking Stairs up in your fantasy league.

Name: Alex Rios
Grade: A-
Key Statistics: .303 average, 11 HR, 1.062 OPS in May
Projected Statistics: 35 HR, 85 RBI, .300 average, 15 stolen bases
Comment: Rios has been everything Toronto fans had hoped for this season, returning to the form he had before his staph infection last season, and he could be looking at another All-Star selection at just 26 years old. He gets a minus with the A because he is capable of stealing a lot more than four bases at this point, and that streak of errors in three straight games caused flashbacks to the lazy but stellar defense of Devon White, but really nobody can complain with the best lead-off hitter we’ve had in quite some time.

Name: Aaron Hill
Grade: B+
Key Statistics: 7 HR, 25 RBI, 433 innings played
Projected Statistics: 20 HR, 85 RBI, .275 average
Comment: Aaron’s power has been a great surprise but has slowed markedly in May, but that’s not what he’s around for anyways. His defense has improved remarkably, to the point where he is now a top-tier second baseman in the AL, and he has been a workhorse, leading the team in total playing time. The batting average is concerning at .270 since he should be hitting .300, and he’s striking out a lot more than he had before but Aaron has shown to be somewhat of a streaky hitter the last two seasons, so I’ll wait out the average before docking him too much for it.

Name: Troy Glaus
Grade: B+
Key Statistics: 32 games played, 8 HR, 23 RBI, .381 OBP
Projected Statistics: 33 HR, 95 RBI, .265 average
Comment: If Glaus can stay healthy the rest of the season it’s a huge boost to our lineup, as shown by his projected stats in a 140-ish game scenario. At the same time, his heel is unlikely to leave him pain-free so days off and even another DL stint can be expected. Glaus has been mashing the ball and getting on base like a madman, proving that a foot injury can’t slow down power and patience.

Name: Vernon Wells
Grade: C- (the team goes the way its star does, it would seem)
Key Statistics: .265 average, 5 HR, .756 OPS
Projected Statistics: .280 average, 26 HR, 90 RBI, 18 stolen bases
Comment: Vernon has looked good on the basepaths (5 SB) and in the field but that’s about all. He’s struck out 29 times to 15 walks and has just the sixth highest OPS on the team. He’s also performed poorly with runners in scoring position. Given the extension he received in the offseason, this is unacceptable. However, there is no reason to believe Vernon won’t turn it around. He’s an excellent player and started slow two seasons ago as well. It may be a little late for him to aim at hitting .300, 30, 100, but the projected stats I threw up there are nothing to laugh at. Don’t worry about him.

Name: Reed Johnson
Grade: N/A
Key Statistics: 7 games played
Projected Statistics: .275 average, 5 home runs, 65 games played
Comment: Not sure where I’m getting that games total from, just a guess. He’s a while from returning to the team, and with his performance Lind will likely be optioned to AAA so Reed could have the starting job back. He looked good before he went down, knocking in 7 runs and stealing 2 bases in just 7 games, but that’s much too small a sample to judge what could have been this year.

Name: Lyle Overbay
Grade: B-
Key Statistics: 48 games played, 7 HR, .478 OBP, 14 doubles
Projected Statistics: 160 games played, 25 HR, 90 RBI, .275 average, 46 doubles
Comment: Overbay has been making up for his poor average by walking more than anyone on the team but Frank Thomas. He’s also been racking up extra base hits like everyone would expect him too, and he’ll again be towards the top of the league for doubles. The average should rise over the course of the season, and there’s no reason to think Overbay’s totals shouldn’t be just as positive at season’s end. He’s also been a workhorse, sitting out just one game so far.

Name: John McDonald
Grade: C-
Key Statistics: .259 average, .268 OBP
Projected Statistics: .250 average, 15 extra base hits
Comment: Apparently John Gibbons does not know a statistical aberration when he sees one. When J-Mac started out the season hitting .400-ish, Gibbons made the switch to a platoon at the position with Clayton, rather than keeping an everyday shortstop. McDonald is a good fielder but has limited range (in the Twins game the other day, two balls went for seeing eye singles that should have been within range, leading to a couple runs), but adds nothing on top of this, as we all know. He has 6 doubles which is a power surge for him, and has just one walk and three RBI in 85 plate appearances. It’s time to give the job back to Clayton.

Name: Jason Phillips
Grade: C
Key Statistics: 10 RBI
Projected Statistics: 65 games, 20 RBI, 40 strikeouts
Comment: Phillips has been what you’d expect from a backup catcher, hitting .256 with one long ball and decent defense. Unfortunately, he’s not a backup catcher right now. I made the cry to call up Curtis Thigpen the other day (to mixed reviews) and I’m certain he’d be an upgrade on the weirdest looking platoon in major league history. Phillips is fine for a back-up, but it makes me cringe to want Zaun’s bat back.

Name: Royce Clayton
Grade: C-
Key Statistics: .248 average, 32 strikeouts
Projected Statistics: .250 average
Comment: Nobody really expected him to hit, but he is an OBP and base running upgrade over Johnny Mac. He has 4 errors, but two of those came in one sloppy game and another should have been an infield single. The strikeout number is high for 109 at bats but he’s managed 5 more extra base hits and 6 more RBI than McDonald in just a few more games. Royce is capable of being our everyday shortstop.

Name: Adam Lind
Grade: B-
Key Statistics: .226 average, 5 HR, 30 strikeouts
Projected Statistics: .250 average, 12 HR, 100 games played
Comment: I’ll be grilled for playing favorites here in giving Lind a B- with his numbers, but he’s a rookie. He’s also shown some great signs of progress, flashing some power people didn’t think he had and showing off a great glove that was not supposed to be major league caliber. Lind is likely headed for AAA when Reed Johnson returns, hence the low games cap, but he’s been learning a lot and I don’t see why his average wouldn’t rise between now and then. He knows what he’s doing wrong and is working to fix it, so it’s only a matter of time before this talented a hitter irons it out.

Name: Frank Thomas
Grade: C
Key Statistics: .226 average, .354 OBP, 7 HR, 29 walks
Projected Statistics: .270 average, .380 OBP, 29 HR, 85 RBI
Comment: Last year, Thomas was performing much worse than this and ended up 5th in MVP voting. While his projected stats are a big leap from his current pace (23 HR, 66 RBI), older players in general start their seasons slower. So do power hitters. And players with big lumbering swings. And Frankie, in the past. So with his recent ‘hot’ streak (3/12, 2 HR, 5 BB in last 4 games) there’s good reason to believe he’ll soon deserve the nickname The Big Hurt once again. Please remember, the black Shrek did this exact same thing last year and turned it around after his birthday (May 27).

Name: Gregg Zaun
Grade: N/A
Key Statistics: 20 games played, .186 average
Projected Statistics: 100 games played, .240 average
Comment: Zaun was off to an awful start to the year before taking a ball off the hand and breaking his thumb. But just two weeks or so away from returning, Zaun is feeling good and should likely right the ship he was on before. He’ll be given lots of time to rehab his thumb and work on his swing, so if he hits in the .270 range for the rest of the season (like he did last season), he should finish with respectable numbers for an aging catcher. He’ll need a strong finish to keep Thigpen in the minors in 2008.

Name: Jason Smith
Grade: F
Key Statistics: 1 for 4 in 2 games with Arizona, 22 strikeouts in 52 at-bats with Toronto
Projected Statistics: Who cares
Comment: The Rule V draft pick didn’t work out. It didn’t really matter, though, as he provided some versatility and the hilarious strikeout rate while here at no cost, since the D-Backs picked him up. All the best to him.

Name: Sal Fasano
Grade: D
Key Statistics: 10 games played, .148 average, 1 great moustache
Projected Statistics: 15 games played, .150 average, 1 great moustache
Comment: He provided the live highlight of the season when he tripped and barrel rolled trying to slide for a foul ball right in front of BJ and I against the Red Sox. Obviously no longer a major league hitter, he calls a good game and knows the young pitchers well so he’s fine being a backup with Zaun out. He’s an entertaining crowd favorite, and I’d like to see him get a bit more time in to get over the Mendoza Line.

Name: Ryan Roberts
Grade: N/A
Key Statistics: 2/26 career, leagues lead in tattoos
Projected Statistics: .150 average, ties with Ryan Freel for most positions played
Comment: With 8 appearances and just 13 at-bats, the sample size is too small to give Roberts an evaluation. His versatility (all four infield positions and the corner outfields) is impressive and very useful, so he should get a chance to improve on his .077 batting average.

That’s all there is for hitters. It’s been pretty ugly so far, but still with a lot of potential. The Jays are averaging just 4.53 runs per game with a lineup that should average 5.5, so the offense definitely needs to pick up their end of the bargain. The pitching staff has been patchwork, but the bullpen has been all anyone could ask for, so the responsibility falls on the hitters to win the games the pitchers keep them in. I’ll break down the pitching staff tomorrow.