Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Blue Jays Quarterly Review Part 2
Date: May 29, 2007
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: I can’t possibly comprehend how I thought there was enough going on in the 2007 Toronto Blue Jays season to warrant a two-part quarterly review. But here it is.

Well, the Jays came through with an impressive 7-2 win last night over the Yankees, having two large effects on this article. First, my piece yesterday praising Overbay’s likely continued production looks pretty good after one day of retrospection. Second, it’s going to be hard to avoid the halo and recency effects when evaluating Dustin McGowan after his sparkling 7.2 inning shut down of the pinstripes. Yesterday we looked at the Jays lineup, which I forgot to give an overall grade to but will go with C-, and today is the pitching staff. Keeping in mind that the overall grade is based more on expectations compared to actual results than results alone, the Jays staff gets a B- from me, receiving a big boost from the tripod of Janssen, Downs, and Accardo. Just like the D-X theme music says, allow me to break it down.

The PitchersName: Jamie Vermilyea
Grade: N/A
Key Statistics: 0.00 ERA, 6 innings pitched, 7.00 ERA at AAA
Projected Statistics: 10 innings pitched
Comment: Obviously we haven’t seen enough of Vermilyea yet to make a clear judgment, but his path this season has been entertaining. Struggling to start the AAA season, Jamie gets called up to the Jays and throws 3 shutout innings against the Orioles, but is immediately sent back down afterwards. He was shelled for 5 runs in his first relief appearance back with Syracuse, and then again for 5 more right before being called up once again. This time against the Red Sox, Jamie threw 3 shutout innings. Although he hasn’t pitched in almost three weeks, Jamie has looked good when given the chance and could be a decent bullpen contributor down the road (he’s only 25).

Name: Casey Janssen
Grade: A+
Key Statistics: 24.2 innings pitched, 1.09 ERA, 7 holds
Projected Statistics: 80 innings pitched, 2.00 ERA
Comment: Janssen, competing for a rotation spot in spring training, made a late change to the bullpen and has thrived like nobody would expect. In 2006 he started off the season (as a starter) on a roll and then fell apart, but this role seems to suit him a lot more as he can come in and limit himself to just three different pitches. Janssen has been unbelievably consistent setting up for Frasor and Accardo. At just age 25, Janssen seems to have a future as a set-up man or possibly back in the rotation if need dictates.

Name: Jeremy Accardo
Grade: A+
Key Statistics: 21.2 innings pitched, 5 saves, 1.25 ERA, 22 strikeouts
Projected Statistics: 75 innings pitched, 2.00 ERA, 25 saves
Comment: Like Janssen, Accardo was fighting for a job in spring training but has thrived in a new role, as the team’s closer. Nobody can say he didn’t earn it, throwing 21 straight shutout innings to begin the season (just 2 shy of Paul Quantrill’s Blue Jay record). He has only allowed runs in one game, a blown save last week, and has been pretty much unhittable. He holds lefties to a .108 batting average and batters overall to a .190 average. His numbers since becoming the closer, if extrapolated for an entire season, would put him in fairly elite company.

Name: Scott Downs
Grade: A
Key Statistics: 2.41 ERA, 25 appearances, .182 opponent average
Projected Statistics: 85 appearances, 2.50 ERA
Comment: Nobody believed me when I raved in the offseason about how much I like Scotty Don’t out of the bullpen. His ERA in 2006 when relieving was sub-3.00 and he’s showing again this year that he’s a reliable option as a lefty specialist or set up man, and we know from seasons past that he can eat innings as a long man or spot starter. Downs’ versatility is a big part of why our bullpen has had success despite the loss of our two anchors, League and Ryan.

Name: Brian Wolfe
Grade: N/A
Key Statistics: 21.2 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA at AAA
Projected Statistics: 10 innings pitched
Comment: The 26 year old right hander was dominating at Triple-A Syracuse so was called up yesterday as Ryan Roberts heads back down. Apparently, despite not using Towers or Vermilyea in 2 and 3 weeks, respectively, Gibbons feels the need for an extra arm in the pen. Like I’ve been saying, Gibbons is an idiot, but it’s nice to see Wolfe get a chance given his success this season.

Name: Brian Tallet
Grade: B+
Key Statistics: 2.65 ERA, .110 opponent average
Projected Statistics: 3.50 ERA, 55 innings pitched
Comment: Tallet didn’t make the team out of training camp, which he said surprised him, but he struggled at AAA as well. I guess he worked out the kinks, and he’s back in the majors eating innings and squaring off against lefties. Some of his stats have to be aberrations, because a .110 opponent average and a 2.65 ERA don’t go together. Perhaps it’s the 10 walks. Tallet has some issues to work out but is a decent long relief guy. I’ve got no problems with…WOLVERINE!

Name: A.J. Burnett
Grade: B
Key Statistics: 4.06 ERA, 5-4, 71 strikeouts, 71 innings pitched, 34 walks, .210 opponent average
Projected Statistics: 17-12, 3.75 ERA, 200 strikeouts, 200+ innings pitched
Comment: Obviously control problems are taxing on Burnett’s final numbers, but A.J. has finally started to show the league why he’s been sought after and well paid for so long. His ERA doesn’t do his performances justice, and he’s been even more lights out in the month of May. In fact, I’d call him a pitcher of the month candidate if his record didn’t hurt him. Burnett, assuming he doesn’t get injured (a large assumption, I know) should easily reach the 200 inning mark for the third time in his career and challenge for the league lead in strikeouts. With Halladay back this week, we’ve finally got that killer 1-2 punch.

Name: Jessie Litsch
Grade: B+
Key Statistics: 4.24 ERA, 17 innings pitched, 3 starts
Projected Statistics: 8 starts, 4.50 ERA
Comment: Obviously his debut was fantastic, and has bought him a little more time in the majors than he probably should be getting at age 22. He’s still very raw and has trouble keeping the ball down in the zone, but his adequate performance thus far is a great sign of things to come. The Ron Howard look alike will probably be sent back down (to AAA, not back to AA, I’m sure) to make room for Halladay, so he’ll get one more start and we’ll see him again if there’s an injury, or September call-ups.

Name: Shaun Marcum
Grade: C-, A
Key Statistics: 1-2, 6.06 ERA, 22 strikeouts, 16.1 innings as a reliever, 1-0, 2.84 ERA, 15 strikeouts, 19 innings as a starter
Projected Statistics: 22 starts, 3.50 ERA as a starter, 125 strikeouts total
Comment: Putting Marcum in the bullpen to start the year made sense. His stuff is better suited for a relief role where he can just pound the strike zone, but according to Shaun he has the mental makeup of a starter. He enjoys preparing for games and hitters and knowing exactly when he’s going to pitch. He’s also been a starter in the minors, so he has the arm strength to eat innings. He’s been impressive with his strikeout rate all season but has been borderline dominant in his three starts so far. He’s found a home at the back end of the rotation, for sure.

Name: Roy Halladay
Grade: B
Key Statistics: 4.37 ERA, 2.28 ERA excluding last two starts
Projected Statistics: 200+ innings pitched, 19-6, 3.00 ERA
Comment: Don’t worry about his last two starts at all. Halladay has hustled back from injury and will probably revert to Cy Young form like he had in April. Having only missed three starts, Roy’s totals for the season shouldn’t be far off of what anyone would have expected. His ERA will be an uphill battle but The Doc is The Doc, enough said.

Name: Jason Frasor
Grade: D
Key Statistics: 4.95 ERA, 20 innings pitched
Projected Statistics: 4.50 ERA, 70 innings pitched
Comment: Frasor was supposed to be a rock for the bullpen last year and faltered. This year he was expected to be a set-up man with Brandon League, and has faltered mightily again. There have been rumblings about sending Frasor to AAA, and I suspect that could be why Brian Wolfe is getting an audition with the big club. Frasor seems to have less confidence than even Josh Towers, and absolutely cannot keep the ball down in the zone.

Name: Tomo Okha
Grade: D
Key Statistics: 2-4, 5.30 ERA
Projected Statistics: 5.00 ERA, 10-12
Comment: Okha has been pretty bad, but he was a bargain in the offseason and his numbers are serviceable as a #5 starter. He’s playing for a new contract for the rest of the season, so we could see him improve when he gets put back in the rotation (whenever we need a 5th starter again). The Tomo-Hawk hasn’t caught on, and he was owned by fellow Jap Dicey in their SkyDome battle, so the season hasn’t been great for him so far.

Name: Gustavo Chacin
Grade: D+
Key Statistics: 5.60 ERA, 5 starts
Projected Statistics: 5.50 ERA
Comment: There isn’t really a time table for Gus’ return, so I don’t have a lot to say here. As our only lefty, we really couldn’t afford to lose Chacin for an extended period of time, but we have. The fact that this is two seasons in row (neither of which he was performing well in, anyways) is very alarming and should send the message to Riccardi that the lefty solution is probably not going to come from within.

Name: Josh Towers
Grade: D
Key Statistics: 5.63 ERA
Projected Statistics: Some ERA with another team or at AAA
Comment: Towers wasn’t given much of a chance, pulled out of the rotation with a 4.70 ERA through 4 starts. Given a longer audition I still feel strongly that JT would have done well, but Gibbons and Riccardi didn’t have the patience to wait it out this year. Towers is not a bullpen pitcher since he relies on control and craft rather than power, and that’s probably why he’s been shelled out of the pen in 4 appearances. Apparently Riccardi is trying to move him and offering to pay part of his salary, and I’d like to see it happen just to give him a fresh start.

Name: Dustin McGowan
Grade: C
Key Statistics: 5.90 ERA, 5 starts
Projected Statistics: 25 starts, 5.00 ERA
Comment: McGowan had an unbelievable outing last night and a decent one before that, but had a rough time in his first three starts of the season. Having acquired another option on McGowan from Major League Baseball, McGowan got the opportunity to show what he could do in AAA, lighting it up down there. The Jays say they are firmly committed to having him in the rotation for the remainder of the season, and it will be interesting to see if Dusty can finally put all of the pieces together for a good run. He very clearly has the tools to be successful, so a 5.00 ERA prediction could be much too high.

Name: Victor Zambrano
Grade: D-
Key Statistics: 10.68 ERA, 8 appearances, 2 starts
Projected Statistics: Standard long reliever numbers, an ERA a little on the high side
Comment: Zambrano should begin rehabbing in the minors soon so we could see him back with the team, although not in a starting role. He was shelled in both of his starts and was really not deserving of a rotation spot (see my piece on the Towers/Zambrano situation). Vic is a decent long relief man but not much else. The Jays could probably move him around the deadline to provide some playoff team with an extra bullpen arm.

Name: B.J. Ryan, Brandon League, Davis Romero
Grade: N/A
Key Statistics: 5 appearances, 2 blown saves, 12.46 ERA; 0 appearances; 0 appearances
Projected Statistics: Same as above
Comment: We lose our most imposing pitcher and one of the best closers in baseball for the season. Looking at his numbers, Ryan was clearly hurt prior to the season, which was obvious even before Riccardi (finally) admitted it. This is a big loss for the team but allows some of our young arms to develop via trial by fire. Hopefully B.J. can return for the 2008 campaign healthy. League and Romero, we don’t know how they would have fared (as set-up man and long reliever, respectively) but it’s safe to say the loss of those two hasn’t been very damaging given the performance of our tripod.

So the pitching actually hasn’t been all that bad, especially as of late. With Halladay returning, I actually like our rotation of Halladay/Burnett/Marcum/McGowan/Okha better than our opening day rotation of Halladay/Burnett/Okha/Chacin/Towers. This year may end up being a positive in the grand scheme of things for the franchise as we’re getting to work out a lot of young players and get them major league experience well before they were expected to. McGowan, Marcum, Lind, Litsch, Janssen, and Accardo are all names getting a chance to shine and earn roles for a 2008 season that should bring just as much optimism as there was before this train wreck of a 2007 season. The Jays are showing signs of life though, and a winning season isn’t out of the question, although a playoff spot probably is.