Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Toronto Raptors Mid-Season Review
Date: January 22, 2008
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: Pretty straight-forward, mid-season review of a mediocre Toronto Raptors squad.

Saturday’s game marked the halfway point of the season for the Toronto Raptors. A tight loss to Philadelphia on the second end of a back-to-back leaves the Raptors at an acceptable 22-19 mark. For the benefit of those rusty on their math skills (probably all of you), that’s a 44-38 pace for the season that would leave us three wins shy of last season’s franchise record tying 47 wins. The Raptors have been on fire of late, winning 5 of their last 7 on the laurels of a great stretch of games from NBA and YouTube superstar Chris Bosh . With the recent run of success for the team, it’s easy to think back to last January’s 11-4 mark where we became the first team in NBA history to sweep the monthly awards, and it’s easy to remember the optimism heading into the playoffs last year as a surprising and inspiring turn-around club. Unfortunately, I remember all too well the 6-game series loss to the Nets, and the recent winning streak has not made me forget how lathargic this team has looked at times this year. But with rose-colored goggles on and a burning optimism for my boys in red, I have to conclude that 22-19 is not a record indicative of how good this team is. In the preseason I predicted a franchise best 48 win season and with both major west coast road trips out of the way and no Western Conference opponents in April, I’m confident in standing by that prediction moving forward. What follows here is an evaluation of the Raptors season thus far, looking at team and individual elements, plus a closing on what to expect the rest of the way. Enjoy!

The Team
Grade: B
There is really no way to describe this team right now other than average. The Raptors are in the middle of the pack for almost every statistical category, sit in 6th place in the Eastern Conference, and have at times looked like the best and worst team in the NBA. The Excel-cum-Paint chart below shows the Raptors standing in some key statistical categories, and an apology goes out to anyone who doesn’t recognize some of the stats (a few are taken from ESPN.com’s statistical mastermind John Hollinger). Click to make it bigger.

What is obvious from this is that the Raps are fairly mediocre. While we are slightly above average defensively, we are nowhere near the “Phoenix of the East” that Bryan Colangelo is allegedly trying to make us. One key area is that we are near the best in the league at protecting the ball. It is extremely important to this team to take care of every possession because, as evidenced by our terrible rebounding and pace numbers, we don’t get too many of them. And finally, while we have a reputation as one of the best shooting teams in the league, this is only true of the long-ball, since our true shooting percentage is, you guessed it, average.But there are positive signs. While we sit 6th in the East, we are a mere game out of 4th place and home-court advantage in the playoffs. And while we have no chance of catching the Celtics for the Atlantic Division crown, ESPN’s playoff oddsmaker has us at a 98.9% chance of making the playoffs (with, surprisingly, a 2.6% chance of winning the championship). Another bright spot to dwell on is that we have had the second toughest strength of schedule thus far, next only to Houston, which means the worst is behind us.

Overall, this team hasn’t performed above expectations, but they haven’t been a disaster, either. In the East, and remembering last year’s late-season surge, everything is still wide open.

The Coach
Grade: B
Last year I campaigned hard for Sam Mitchell to receive a contract extension mid-season and remove his ‘lame duck’ status. It didn’t happen until the offseason, where he was rewarded handsomely for his Coach of the Year award. Sam hasn’t exactly followed it up with a great coaching season, but he’s also been dealt a pretty tough hand, having been hit with injuries to Bosh, Ford, Garbo, and Andrea. On the plus side, he has gotten a great deal out of former slug Kris Humphries and out-of-nowhere Jamario Moon. At the same time though, he has gotten next to nothing from Bargnani and Dixon, two key contributors from last season. Sam has molded this team into a decent defensive unit, but he has struggled to improve the team’s rebounding and shot selection. Overall, Sam is what he is: an excellent players’ coach who has trouble with in-game adjustments and, like most coaches, has trouble with getting consistent effort and production from his roster.

The Players
Overall Grade: B+
I will look at each player individually in a moment, but overall the team goes as the players go. Some have been great, some have been disappointing, but mostly they’ve been inconsistent. Please note that the grades are based more on how players have met expectations rather than just their overall performance.

Chris Bosh aka “CB4”
Grade: A-
Key Stats: 36 MPG, 22.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.13 BPG, 48% shooting, 84.6% FT shooting
I made a conscious effort to not fall victim to the recency effect here as Bosh has played unbelievably in January, putting up 29 and 9.5 for the month (unfortunately, he won’t repeat as January player of the month because LeBron is playing the best month of his career with a disgusting 33-10-7). Bosh has improved in a lot of important areas, specifically his free throw shooting and his on-the-floor leadership. I still feel he settles for his jumper too much when there are few bigs who can guard him going to the hole, but he is among the league leaders in free throw attempts. His rebounding is down by roughly a rebound per game from last year, but some of the blame can fall on his early season struggles due to injuries. Bosh is easily the cornerstone of this franchise, and an almost certain All Star selection in February, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to develop positively at both ends of the floor.

TJ Ford
Grade: Incomplete
Key Stats: 17 games played, 14.1 PPG, 6.8 APG, 1.18 SPG, 48.7% shooting
TJ has always, in my eyes, been on the path to being a premiere point guard in the league. People compare him to Jose and it’s just not fair. People fail to realize that, while Jose does take better care of the ball and has a better long range shot, TJ does a number on defenses with his speed, performs the pick and roll to perfection, and his numbers would be insane without a great backup PG requiring 20+ minutes a night. TJ put up 14 and 7 before his injury in just 25 minutes a game, and has one of the top player efficiency ratings in the league. Jose has done unbelievably well replacing Ford, but this team needs its lights out point guard DUO to be successful, so here’s hoping TJ is healthy soon.

Jose Calderon of “Three Fingers” fame
Grade: A+
Key Stats: 27 starts (41 games), 31.1 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 8.4 APG, 50.7% shooting, 42% 3-pt shooting
Those are the numbers of a top point guard in the NBA, without a doubt. What is unbelievable is that those are his numbers including 14 games with smaller minutes off the bench. Just as a starter, in the same order those numbers turn to this jaw-dropping line: 37.3, 13.4, 9.7, 49.7%, 41.7%. That line is right up there with the Chirs Paul’s and Steve Nash’s of the league if you ignore points. And points isn’t a matter of ability, but of Jose’s style of play—involving teammates first and looking for his own shot second. You would be hard pressed to find a Raptor fan who doesn’t love Numero Ocho, and it would be just as tough to find a basketball player who wouldn’t enjoy playing with him. Jose has an outside shot at being chosen by the coaches to go to New Orleans for the All-Star Game but even if he doesn’t go there is no denying him entry into the ‘best young point guard’ discussion.

Anthony Parker of “18 Parkerville Court” fame
Grade: B
Key Stats: 47.7% 3-pt shooting, 11.5 PPG
The lack of ‘key stats’ does not mean that Parker is a one-dimensional player at all. Rather, his numbers are what I expected from him, a mirror image of last season. He is a decent rebounder and an above-average defender, but his best skills are his deadly 3-point shooting and his high basketball IQ. My knock on AP would be that he needs to use his remarkable first step and leaping ability to get to the line more frequently (and light up the crowd with some of the nasty dunks we’ve seen lately). Anthony is having a great January and shooting the ball more, which is a good thing for the flow of this offense. By the way, if Parker is left out of the 3-point competition because the Raptors have a representative in defending champion Kapono, it will be a crime.

Carlos Delfino aka “El Suave”
Grade: B+
Key Stats: 8.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1 SPG, 159 3-pt attempts
‘Los has been one of the nicest surprises for the Raptors this year, finally escaping the obscurity of the deep Detroit bench to emerge as an effective role player. He is a great rebounder for a wingman and has a nice 3-point touch (though his overall shooting percentage is below 40), plus he does a great job on D when he gets up for games. Unfortunately, he no-shows some games occasionally and is probably our most inconsistent contributor. While his 39% 3-point shooting is impressive, he takes more shots per 48 minutes than any player on the team, which is just unacceptable. Hopefully Sam can mold El Suave into the perfect 6th man for this team in the weeks to come.

Andrea Bargnani aka “Il Mago”
Grade: C-
Key Stats: 8.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 0.46 BPG, 37.5% shooting
C-minus might seem like too high a grade for Bargnani, but he did start off the season pretty well and has shown flashes of his old self at times. His January has been miserable and reports say his confidence is at an all-time low, which makes his team-worst shooting percentage alarming. Bargnani has regressed as a scorer (though maybe not as a 3-point shooter), a rebounder, and definately as a defender, losing almost a full block per game off his 2006-07 average. The only thing the same about Andrea from last year is the ever-stunned look on his face. The Rookie of the Year runner up has hit a sophomore slump not usually seen in basektball and needs to break out of it for us to have a chance at a deep playoff run. One solution may be to aleviate the pressure being put on Andrea to be a true centre and experiment with Bosh at the 5, making Andrea free to roam a bit more as a Power Forward.

Jason Kapono aka “Kaponovich”
Grade: C+
Key Stats: 50.5% 3-pt shooting, 95 3-pt attempts
I’ll admit out of the gate that the C-plus grade is more based on how Kaponovich has been used than a reflection of his performance. His shooting has been as unreal as ever, and he recently moved to #1 all-time in career 3-point percentage. You read that right: we are underutilizing the greatest 3-point shooter in NBA history, statistically speaking. Kapono may have the league’s best jump shot and is currently 4th on the team in 3-point attempts, which is ridiculous. I understand that his D is lacking and he has, at times, tried to get to the basket too much instead of sticking to his game (surprisingly, that is the exact thing Sam wants out of the rest of the team), but we have to find a way to get his deadly marksmanship on the floor and firing more.

Jamario Moon aka “Apollo 33”
Grade: A-
Key Stats: 37 games played, 29.5 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.62 BPG
People may jump down my throat for an A (gasp) minus here, but I’ll explain my biggest complaint about Super Jamario shortly. Jamario has been a great surprise, and not even I (who, for the record, was excited about this signing in the offseason and everyone looked at me like I had four heads) could have predicted he’d have an outside shot at Rookie of the Year. Moon’s D is what got him to the league and it hasn’t disappointed, but his mid-range shooting and ability to create for himself has been the biggest surprise. He is also a fantastic rebounder (2nd on the team in rebounds per game) and is a shot blocking machine, good for a highlight reel swat or dunk on a nightly basis. My knock on the future Slam Dunk Champion is that he is still extremely raw as a professional and struggles to identify exactly what ‘his game’ is, and not uncommonly for rookies he takes a lot of ill-advised shots that have me pulling my hair. Seriously though, Moon is exactly the kind of Rags to Bitches story the NBA needs once in a while, and I’m glad I could be a part of it as a Raps fan and as someone in attendance for his very first time on the floor.

Kris Humphries aka “Baby Huey”
Grade: B
Key Stats: 6.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 48.7% shooting
Don’t let the small numbers, Huey has been important to this team so far this season. Those numbers come in just 15 minutes of playing time, and he had a gigantic December for us (10.5 and 6.2 on 52.5% shooting) though he has struggled in 2008 (just 11 minutes per game and 44% shooting). Like Moon and most young players, Kris tries to do too much and has a bad spray-on tan. If he can continue to develop and learn how to be a role player, he could be a big part of this team’s future as the 3rd wheel in the Bosh-Bargnani front court. Don’t forget, this guy was a McDonald’s All American in high school, Big Ten Freshman of the Year, and a lottery pick, so he definately has the potential to contribute.

Juan Dixon aka “I Guarantee He Shoots This Dixon”
Grade: C-
Key Stats: 12.3 MPG, 36.4% shooting, 94.7% free throw shooting
Juan has been a victim of circumstance a lot of the time this year. Being asked to play sizable minutes out of position is a tough task, and Juan hasn’t responded favorably, managing just 1.6 assists per contest in small run. Obviously, Juan is a scorer first and foremost, which doesn’t translate well for a point guard on this team. He definately has the skills to be a backup 2-guard in the league (see: last season for us) but he doesn’t have much of a role on this team moving forward, except maybe as an expiring contract in a trade.

Joey Graham aka “Golden Graham”
Grade: C with a frowny face
Key Stats: 19 games played, a lot of nasty dunks
Once again, Joey is the lead candidate for team enigma of the year. I’ve supported the guy long enough to know not to do it too boldly in public forum, as he’s been relegated to an inexpensive 11th or 12th man and appears stuck in that role for the forseeable future. Colangelo was clear in the offseason about Joey’s future, picking up his rookie option but bringing in three other small forwards, and Joey has played pretty much to that message. At times, like the other night against Philly, Graham has looked like a 16th overall pick, utilizing his remarkable frame and freakish athleticism, but for the most part he is unmotivated and seems happy to be getting a bigger paycheque than twin brother Stephen in equal playing time.

Rasho Nesterovic aka “Nesterovic…davitavicsky”
Grade: B
Key Stats: 16.7 MPG, 4.2 PPG, 4 RPG, 46.6% shooting
Obviously Rasho is not the future for this team at the center position. Ineffective off the bench with the high-octane second unit, Andrea’s move to the starting lineup signalled the end of Rasho’s productive days. When given the chance, Rasho is a decent defender and will put up 10 and 5 or 8 and 4 with relative consistency and little fanfare. Overpaid a few years back, Rasho’s greatest value comes as a 2009 expiring contract that could be instrumental in making an offseason deal.

Jorge Garbajosa
Grade: An unshaven incomplete
Key Stats: 7 games played, 1 major surgery
Not a lot to say here except to ponder whether Garbo’s limited run when he was ‘healthy’ was because of his decision to play for Spain against the team’s wishes, a lack of role for him on this team moving forward, or the lingering injury. Jorge has another year left on his deal at $4M so he could be valuable as an expiring contract next season, or packaged with Rasho to create some capspace for the summer of 2009.

Maceo Baston
Grade: C
Key Stats: 7 games played, 2 games started, 72.7% shooting
Baston was signed to be the 15th man on a deep team and has been given opportunities as such. He provided a nice dunk and a nice block at some point, but mostly he provided two of the NBA’s collectively bargained 10 ‘players who come out of nowhere to start a game and then disappear’ per season.

Darrick Martin
Grade: F
Key Stats: 14 games played, 1 turnover, 2 3-pt field goals made
Martin’s contributions have been nil this season, even moreso than last season, which is a shame because we actually could have used some steady veteran poise to back up Jose. Instead, Martin has appeared to lose the player-coach balance and is no longer (was he ever?) a servicable NBA contributor. Expect Darrick to make a move to someone’s bench next season as an assistant coach. We’ll always remember him for saving ‘the streak’ and being responsible for Jose’s ‘threes’ catching on.

Looking Forward
With the toughest part of the schedule behind us and Sam finally ironing his rotation down (for the time being) to 8 or 9 effective players each night, the Raps are in a prime position to reel off a run like they did at the start of 2007. While they have squandered an easy January to a small degree (5-4 so far in a month they should have been able to go 9-4 in), the month still has a couple winnable games and February is a month where we run into a few injury plagued teams at the ACC. With that said, coupled with Bosh’s play of late, TJ’s return in 4-6 weeks, and the deal Colangelo will no doubt make between now and the deadline, I feel safe in sticking by my preseason prediction of 48 wins and 3rd place in the East. Is this the best Raptor team ever, then? Only the playoffs can determine that.