Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: The Raptors in February
Date: January 31, 2008
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: A game-by-game look ahead at the schedule of the Toronto Raptors and it’s implications for the playoffs.

The Raptors were expected (by me) to go 9-4 or 8-5 over the month of January. What actually went down was the latter, 8-5, though not in the manner I had expected. We posted the shocking win over the Celtics and preceded it with an uninspiring loss to the 76ers on the road, a true snapshot of 2008 thus far. To start the month we lost a winnable game at home against Cleveland (LeBron dropped 24 in the 4th) but threw together three impressive wins including a double overtime showdown against the Blazers. The second ugly loss to the Pistons of 2008 was followed by wins over improving teams in the Kings and Hawks. Enter said loss to Philly and the big win over Boston, and then a 31 point victory over the hapless Bucks. To end the month, we split a pair in a rare home-and-home on back-to-back nights with the comparable-to-us Wizards as anticipated, capping the month with an uplifting 39 point win.

If we can draw anything from January it’s that we have the potential to be a top team in the East (beating Boston, the double OT win, two 30+ point wins) but are still largely inconsistent and inexperienced (two losses to Detroit, letting games against Philly and Cleveland slip away). The player of the month was definately CB4 (28 and 9 on 60% shooting) but he’ll fall short of Eastern Conference honors because of The King. Bargnani struggled mightily again despite having two monster games (Detroit and Boston) and playing well in three of the last four. Jose and AP picked up a lot of the slack, with Jose improving his numbers for the third consecutive month (15.3 points and 10.3 dimes on 55% shooting and 50% from 3-point range for the month), and Parker getting into the same late-season groove he hit last year (15-4-3 for the month on 48% shooting, 45% from long range). Moving forward, the Raps find themselves at 25-20, just a half game out of a home-court position in the East, with a fairly easy February on tap.

February
1: Friday brings a Showdown with Showtime, a home game against the Lakers that will mark just the third game this season I haven’t been able to watch, putting me on a pace close to my record 2005-06 when I watched 77 of 82 games. Kobe will provide big problems as usual but the Lakers are hurting and we should be able to take a W.4: The Raps could be hungover for this one, likely having partied the night before in South Beach for the SuperBowl. The Heat will have done the same though, and we should be able to take advantage of this former superpower at their worst.8: Another couple of days off before a solitary home game against the Clippers, making it three straight games against banged up teams. Maggette and Kaman should be back by then but the Clippers are still short on bench support and we’ll be well rested heading into this sure-fire W.

10: A rare Sunday nighter, the Raps get another ‘easy pickin’s’ game against the T-Wolves. Randy Foye back or not, this team is bad and should pose no problem for the Raptors. I should note at this time, though, my predictions thus far have produced a 5-game winning streak, a feat the Raptors haven’t done in some time, so it seems likely we will lose one of these first four February games…

11: …before shocking the world in a nationally televised game and beating the Spurs. For San Antonio, this is towards the end of their Rodeo Road Trip. Normally I’d be afraid as this is when the Spurs turn it on, but they are beat up and lacking their perennial depth. Additionally, we match up pretty well with them on offense and have a good chance to eke one out against the defending champs in our only back-to-back set for the month.

13: A playoff rematch that has zero chance of doubling as a playoff preview, this could be Jason Kidd’s last game as a Net. The game comes on a Wednesday (Raps are 8-4 on Wednesdays) and with a whole week off because of the All-Star break, the Raptors should take it to this struggling divisional foe with ease.

16-17-18: The annual All-Star Weekend in New Orleans should be, as always, a great time. On the Friday night we’re represented by Kapono (and possibly Parker) in the 3-ball competition, Moon in the dunk contest, and possibly Jose in the PG-skills competition. Saturday night brings the Rookie-Sophomore game where Jamario and Andrea will go head to head. And Sunday, the big one, will see Chris Bosh come off the bench with/out(?) teammate Jose Calderon. I should note again here that I have the Raps predicted for 6-0 in February thus far, a seven game win streak. While seemingly over-optimistic, the Raps really are running into a lot of bad teams (finally, as we currently have the league’s toughest strength of schedule) and teams with injury problems. While we may not win all of these games, February is shaping up as a pleasant month for the Dinos.

20: After a one-week lay-off for most of the roster the Raps finish up a three game home stand by welcoming the ever-difficult Orlando Magic. This isn’t a team we match up well with, but we should take one of our three meetings with them this year (currently 0-1 with round three in early March). This won’t be the one, though, ending the winning streak.

22: The Raps hit Manhattan for a Friday night affair with the god-awful Knicks. Chances are they will have made a stupid trade by this point, but even as is we should handle them on their own court. This is also the trade deadline, but a big deal seems unlikely with few expiring contracts and Bryan Colangelo only looking to tweak.

24: Ditto in a home game against the Knicks.

25: You have to lose to mediocre teams sometime, and I think this roadie against the Pacers could be it. Jeff Foster historically kills us, and I don’t see us getting up for a game against the new-look (of course they’ll make some sort of trade, this is the team that took on Troy Murphy AND Mike Dunleavy just for the sake of trading) Pacers. We’ll get them back a few days later.

27: Another match-up with the bottom feeding T-Wolves, this should mark the official beginning of ‘tanking season’ for Minny. This time at home, only a Big Al 30-20 can keep us from a W.

29: The rematch with Indiana, this time at home, and with the new Pacer acquisitions already at each other’s throats and realizing their games don’t mesh, we’ll round out a solid month with a solid W.

Yes, the predictions look brash and optimistic. However, look at the explanation for each game. We face a few beat up teams, face only three winning teams, have eight home games to four road games, and face the Spurs and Lakers at their worst. We get the added bonus of having a fairly certain and steady roster throughout a tumultuous trading month (players worried about trades, and then teams adjusting to new players). Game-by-game, my prediction appears to be a 10-2 month that would leave us at 35-22, but I’ll ammend this for one questionable loss and round it out at 9-3. That, folks, is good for a 34-23 record and therefore a 48-win pace, as I predicted pre-season and at mid-season (that wasn’t planned, by the way). Big months in February go to Carlos Delfino (as a restricted free agent, the trade deadline marks the start of contract auditioning season) and Andrea Bargnani (fingers crossed), but the biggest Raptors news will be that TJ Ford should be, at least, practicing with the team by the end of the month, if not by the All-Star break, which is better than any trade deadline deal B-C could swing.