Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Changes in the AL East
Date: February 1, 2008
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: Looking at the offseason moves of AL East teams and predicting the division for 2008.

For years, the AL East format has been simple. The Yankees and the Red Sox spend the big bucks every offseason, usually to bring in overpriced or over-the-hill talent, but spend enough that a few nuggets turn out successful. Their success “justifies” the $150M plus spent annually by the Evil Empires, and the owners have deep enough pockets and established enough team brands that a World Series win just once in a while is well worth it. On the other end of the spectrum, the Devil Rays have long since utilized a National League business model, spending close to the bare minimum, being uncompetitive, and reaping sizable profits via MLB’s revenue sharing program. In the middle, the Jays and Orioles debate and flip-flop between the two spectrums or, on occasion, trying to compete with a delicate balancing act. For ten years now the results have largely been the same: NY/Boston or Boston/NY at the top, Toronto/Baltimor or Baltimore/Toronto in the middle, and Tampa Bay at the bottom, with few exceptions. In 2008, though, things appear to be changing. While the financial structure of each team remains constant (and unbalanced), each team has taken a drastically different approach to this offseason compared to seasons past. The result of said changes is, obviously, ambiguous at this point, but one guarantee can be made: for better or worse, the AL East will be a little different in 2008.

New York Yankees
With the highest payroll in baseball seemingly for centuries now, the Bronx Bombers’ philosophy has always been to spend a lot of dough on free agents and take advantage of small-market teams when top players come to the end of their arbitration years, prying one of them for a bevy of prospects at nearly every trade deadline. In the past five years the Yankees have dolled out the five biggest payrolls in baseball history, and again this year they one-upped themselves, shelling out a ludicrous $218.3M. So where is the difference this year? For one, the Yankees have tried to stay out of the media spotlight because all of their publicity is the wrong kind right now. From the A-Rod contract fiasco to half of their last World Series roster being named in the Mitchell Report to their failure at acquiring Johan despite having the best package to offer, it hasn’t been a friendly offseason in sports tabloids. But the Yankees have always been hated by those outside of New York so I ask, again, what is so different this year?

Well, the Yankees finished 2nd in the division last year. One would think an orgnaization like this would go buck wild in the offseason to ‘right the ship,’ but the Yankees have been eerily quiet. With a duo fo Darth Vaders replacing Darth Maul and with a lot of money tied up in poor investments on the roster, the Yankees have limited their offseason roster changes to small tinkerings within the organization. The biggest change is the loss of Joe Torre, but the loss of Roger Clemens (or the loss of the threat of signing Roger Clemens in July, rather) looms just as large, The only contractual moves the Yankees have made have been to excercise an option on Abreu, re-sign Posada and Rodriguez, sign LaTroy Hawkins in order to weaken their already brutal bullpen, and extend Pettite for one year. Pettite is a huge gamble at $16M because the Mitchell Report accusations seem to have destroyed him as a person; Posada, Abreu, and A-Rod were obvious moves; and Hawkins (and I forgot, Wilson Betemit was signed too, how dare I) will not prove a difference maker.So the Yankees have limped through the 2007/08 offseason like never before. No trades. No big-name free agent signings. Big contracts only for those within the organization, so they are at least overpaying their own instead of the stars of small-market teams. But New York is significantly unchanged from a team that struggled to make the playoffs in 2007, a team that is aging poorly and has a sub-par bullpen with no offensive identity. The Yankees 25-man roster is uninspiring, and even the continued development of Cano , Cabrera, Hughes, and Joba can’t keep the rest of the team above the Cialis line.

The Yankees in 2008: Not a big threat unless they have plans for the next three weeks before pitchers and catchers report to camp.

Outlook: 3rd in the AL East, no playoffs, and an ill-advised deadline deal to bring in a top pitcher.

Boston Red Sox
With the second highest payroll in baseball, the Sox paid out $155.4M…for a World Series Championship. You can’t really argue with the results there because a ring is a ring is a ring. The payroll can be expected to increase a small amount because of naturally inflating contracts for arbitration eligible players and the short extensions some players got.

The fact that the Red Sox made little noise this offseason actually doesn’t surprise me. They missed out on Johan because they weren’t willing to commit the money for an extension, and nobody on their current squad was extended further than a year with the exception of Mike Lowell. Theo Epstein is as smart a GM as they come, and he may realize now that their top players are beginning to age and it will be necessary to have financial flexibility in two or three seasons when they have to build around the new core of Lester, Papelbon, Pedroia, and Ellsbury.

As far as 2008 goes, the Red Sox look primed to rely on a young back-end of the rotation and a fairly unproven bullpen, though they boast a solid lineup. They are the best team in the league at wearing pitchers down (1st in baseball in 2007 in walks compared to 21st in strikeouts) and they not surprisingly had the second best OBP as a result. Their biggest weakness is defense, though players at key positions are improving and their home field is suited to their talent. I would expect that the Red Sox will make a move at some point to shore up the rotation or shortstop position, and Coco Crisp is likely on the move as he is an affordable starter but expensive bench piece. Until someone proves otherwise, the Red Sox are the team to beat in this divisio. Like them or not, you can’t argue with these numbers: 2nd in baseball in ERA, top-10 in fielding percentage, 2nd in OBP, top-10 in quality starts, top-10 in total bases, etc, etc. And that was all with an unhealthy Papi and Lester and a reluctance to play Ellsbury full time.

The Red Sox in 2008: Definately the favorite but with weaknesses and only average organizatonal depth.

Outlook: 1st in the AL East unless injuries predicate otherwise.

Toronto Blue Jays
Here is where the divisional shake up really begins, with the lesser teams in the division making strategic moves. For the first time, JP is getting away from the ‘Big Two’ AL East strategies (accepting a mediocre club but making money or trying to spend 60% of what others spend with fingers crossed) and trying to create a unique identity for this team. The Jays payroll was a modest $79.9M last year, just below the league median, and that will only increase slightly this year. Halladay, Stairs, Johnson, and other arbitration players got slight raises due to the nature of their contracts, and Rios is due for a decent raise. Eckstein and Barajas were cheap signings and Vernon’s deal actually decreases this year because it is the first year of a back-loaded contract extension. Also, Rolen and Glaus were a wash for 2008 pay. Thus, the Jays will probably be in $85M territory, right where Uncle Ted wants it and about half of what the Sox spend.

Obviously, then, JP has nipped his out-buy-with-less-money strategy in the bud and has begun to define this team, intentionally or not. Articles posted by Erik and I last week both sparked a lot of discussion about the path of the Jays so I won’t go into inordinate detail, but the jist is as follows. Foremost, the Jays are a formidable defensive unit with gold glove potential at CF, 2B, and 3B, very solid defenders with good arms at the corner outfield spots, and above-average defenders at 1B and SS (and when J-Mac plays, bump him to the gold glove category), with the only defensive weakness being behind the plate which, when you think about it, is kind of irrelevant and has been shored up with the depth from Hot Rod. The defensive approach makes a lot of sense for a team with primarily groundball pitchers, and makes even more sense if you expect our bullpen to perform as well as last year. What’s the link between defense and a good bullpen? Well, as I alluded to in a response to Erik’s Jays piece, a team with a good bullpen and great defense is a team that is excellent at protecting leads, especially of the 2-3 run variety, something Jays teams have struggled with for all eternity. This quirk in our makeup allows us to explore the possibility of small ball.

I know, I know. Small ball in the AL East against powerhouses New York and Boston, but hear me out. The Jays have enough offensive talent 1-7 to be competitive every game, and their rotation is solid-to-great depending on how the kids perform this year. The lineup this year is better suited to run and wear down opposing pitchers, with the addition of Rolen and health of Reed being big factors there (Rolen is a much better base runner than Glaus, allowing us to hit Wells or Rios at #6 without impeding their speed, and Johnson is a speed upgrade over Stairs/Lind). Gibbons is traditionally a no-steal coach but a lot of that has to do with JP’s Moneyball roots. On Tuesday, in response to Erik’s Friday article, I wrote:

“With respect to base stealing, I believe the Moneyball maxim is that they are only statistically valuable if you are successful 70% of the time or more. The five biggest threats we have to run and their accompanying career success rates are:Wells=77%
Rios=73%
Johnson=64%
Eckstein=72%
McDonald=74%

So there is definately merit in wanting to run more. The Jays were 27th in stolen bases, 29th in stolen base attempts, and 19th in stolen base success rate (without Eckstein, of course). That would definately suggest the Jays should try more, especially given their ‘NL’ look in the AL East.

The Jays were also 25th in sacrifice hits (no stats for attempts). As for selectivity at the plate, the Jays are actually middle of the pack, 19th in total strikeouts and 13th in walks.”

What does all this summate to? The Jays have the personnel now to play a different style of baseball than the AL East is used to. With a good rotation, a great bullpen, and a top defense, the Jays have probably the best ability in the division when it comes to protecting a lead. Smart baseball strategy posits that you take an extra run or two where you can with a lead (not playing for the 3-run home run ala Moneyball), so there is sound logic behind the Jays implementing more small ball strategy this season, assuming Gibbons even has a signal for “steal” or “bunt.”

That holds as true today as it did on Tuesday, so I feel it’s fine to copy and paste here. Basically, the Jays have the unique opportunity to use the core they’ve built to emulate NY/Boston to be competitive in games but, once a lead is built or the 6th/7th innings hit, to switch it up to this unique strategy of gridning out games with the big dogs.

All of this, of course, depends on the success of a young pitching staff and the repetition of last year’s bullpen success, neither of which are sure bets. Without solid pitching, defense and the ability to play small ball is completely irrelevant.

The Jays in 2008: An experiment with JP’s job on the line, which could mean a big deadline deal that JP has been weary of in the past. And we’re relying too much on young players.

Outlook: 2nd in the AL East and competitive for the Wild Card. Don’t think this is the last you’ve heard about the ’08 Jays this offseason from The On Deck Circle.

Baltimore Orioles
Note: I wrote this assuming that the pending Bedard for Jones and prospects deal will actually go through. If it doesn’t, my analysis really doesn’t change since they would no doubt move Bedard to another suitor now or later in the year (the only way this has an effect on this analysis is if he is sent to an AL East team).

In the past decade the Orioles have spent more than the Jays but with lesser results. Last year they dropped $95M coming up well short of their “$1M per win” goal. Owner Peter Angelos is apparently fed up and (finally) committed to rebuilding with a vision. This vision will come with some hard times, I’m sure, since the team has dealt its top hitter and pitcher in Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard, respectively. The Orioles look like a Rays knock off more than a Jays knock off for 2008 and their organizational depth improved a great deal from those two trades. Unfortunately they failed to acquire more than one MLB-ready player (Adam “Don’t Call Me Pacman” Jones from Seattle) but a couple of the young arms they received could make the team.
With one of the worst bullpens in baseball and their Ace gone, most of the pitching duty falls to inexperienced arms with Jeremy Guthrie leading the pack. It would make sense for the Os to move strikeout machine Daniel Cabrera, too, and the Yankees could be a suitor that could provide an infield prospect or two. Guthrie, Ramon Hernandez, and Nick Markakas are the only thing fans really have to look forward to this year though I’m hearing that youngsters Scott Moore and Luis Hernandez may get their chance in the infield right from opening day.

The Orioles in 2008: The first year of a rebuilding phase is never pretty and you can expect names like Huff, Cabrera, Bradford, and Gibbons to be thrown around towards the deadline.

Outlook: 5th in the AL East by a long shot.

Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
The former D-Rays are now just the Rays, a name change that comes at a fitting time as the organization has shifted gears. A committed cellar dwellar since their inception, the Rays have finally made a move to climb out of the basement, though the road is steep. After years of penny pinching (a league-low $24M payroll last year) they have committed to spending some money. They are mostly the beneficiaries of very smart drafting and a shy trigger finger the last few years, and they’ve finally built up a core of players that can compete.
After years of having a glut of outfield depth and no pitching, that has changed, too. The Rays made the brilliant move of dealing Delmon Young to the Twins for Matt Garza in November in a 6-man trade. While Young is a sure-fire prospect, Garza has proven he can pitch in the AL already and the Rays are left with a more than competent outfield without Big D (they signed Cliff Floyd to make sure). The Rays now boast a super-young top three in the rotation of Kazmir-Shields-Garza with Jason Hammel and Andy Sonnastine both candidates to play well this year, too (Edwin Jackson lurks as a sleeper starter as well). They also brought in Troy Percival to shore up a perenially awful bullpen, but the relief corps is still a huge concern. With the team finally realizing there is a market for young position players, it is conceivable that they’d move AAA-level hitters for some bullpen or rotation depth.

They finished 7th in baseball in home runs last year, performed adequately with respect to average and OBP, and stole a ridiculous 131 bases. They lost just 13 home runs and 10 stolen bases off of those totals in Young, but a lot of their offensive output depends on Jonny Gomes and Carlos Pena playing to their potential. Carl Crawford and BJ Upton are sure things and you can expect a better year from Iwamura as well, now adjusted and healthy. Their line-up doesn’t compare 1-9 to the top three in the division but they have a scary core of young pitchers and hitters. If the ownership were to commit at all to building a winner (unlikely unless the State funds a new staidum), they could be on the playoff cusp with a payroll in the $75M range—all these great players are still contractually controllable! Give them a third top outfielder, a back catcher, two decent relievers, and one top middle infielder and they’re good to go. That’s a long list of ‘needs’ but it’s a regular offseason for most teams and could be done at relatively low cost given their minor league depth.

The Rays in 2008: A really fun team to watch and follow, though their inexperience and bullpen will make them a frustarting ‘so much potential’ team. Ownership is NOT committed to spending money so long term success is probably a pipe dream.

Outlook: 4th in the AL East but my pick for favorite team outside of Canada.

So there you have it, the changing landscape of the toughest division in baseball (ya, I said it). The two big spenders did little in the offseason but are still writing ludicrous payroll cheques. They will be tough to knock off but the Jays’ new strategy/new look and the Rays’ development as an underdog story make this division a lot more interesting than in years past. The Orioles are now laughable but could play a big role in the divison by moving valuable assets mid-season in a divison that is, despite all the trades and big spending, not depleted for farm system depth at all.

Final standings: Boston, Toronto, New York, Tampa Bay, Baltimore.
Division MVP: Alex Rodriguez (No brainer)
Division Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Yup, I’m a homer)
Division R.O.Y.: Jacoby Ellsbury (eligible)