Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Blue Jays Streak Buoyed by Pitching
Date: May 6, 2008
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: In place of a series review following a sweep of the White Sox, I opted for another generic Jays analysis piece, focusing mostly on the quality of their pitching.

Note: Instead of a series review from the White Sox sweep this past weekend (5-game winning streak, y’heard), I will be releasing a different Jays article every day for the Tampa series, instead. Today is a look at the pitching dominance, tomorrow is, of course, a Hinske piece with the D-Rays in town, and Thursday will be a comprehensive farm system update. The series reviews will resume on Friday with a Jays-Rays review.

The story of the Toronto Blue Jays this past week has been remarkable. The bats are still largely cold, but the pitching has been so insanely incredible it has to be terrifying other American League teams. Normally, you fear a playoff opponent that has two great starters to throw at you for five games of a 7-set, but four apparently great pitchers and one good one, to boot? No team is going to want to run into a rotation like that en route to the World Series.

Wait, what? The Jays are still below .500? Not even close to a playoff spot?

Well…damn.

Yes, the bats are still frozen and probably won’t heat up until the weather here does, but the Jays have managed to stay afloat through rock solid starting pitching and a now-predictably lockdown bullpen. Don’t believe this apparent hyperbole? Allow me to introduce Exhibit A:

You have no idea who pitched which of those games, do you? Yes, earned runs may not be the absolute best measure of pitching performance, but it’s the best I care to find when looking at a small series of data. Oh, the data set is too small, also? Well, that’s probably correct, but I’m talking about the pitching thus far – I’m not saying the Jays possess Glavine-Maddux-Smoltz-plus-two for the long-term future. If you’re still not sold on how good this staff has been, allow me to introduce Exhibit B:

And in case you’re one to argue, Exhibit C:

And just because, Exhibit D:

o, are you catching all of that? 8 earned runs over the last 9 starts for Jays pitchers, totalling 66.1 innings? Not only is that an average of 7.1 innings a start, it’s also a collective ERA of 1.08 over that span. On top of that, the bullpen’s overall ERA for the season is 3.02, and that includes Burnett’s poor relief outing, League’s struggles, and Accardo’s time without his splitter. The Jays have the best overall pitching statistics of any team in baseball. Nobody can question the job J.P. Ricciardi has done finding talent for the pitching staff. Say what you want about his fiscal management or the hitters he’s brought in, but with a total rotation payroll of $24.4M and a total pitching staff payroll of $41.6M, this staff isn’t just pitching the lights out, it’s doing it on the cheap (comparatively, of course).

An additional note is that the Jays have performed better than average in allowing stolen bases, too – the staff’s main Achilles Heel from 2007. The staff has, for the most part, been the only bright spot on the team thus far.

So, is there anything left to say, really?

Sure there is; it’s the most important part.

There is no reason to believe the team can’t finish the season with pitching rankings just as good as they are right now. The 1.08 starters ERA over the past nine will come down (and yes, Jesse Carlson may turn back into a human at any point) but compared to the other top pitching staffs in baseball, you have to like the Jays staff to be one of the best.

Doc Halladay is Doc Halladay. A.J. Burnett has been himself this season, too – a few great starts and a few big mistakes. Dustin McGowan has been a touted prospect forever so you know the talent is there. Marcum’s control is getting better and he learned the importance of hard work in the offseason from Doc and a desire to be in better shape – his improvements should be sustained. And Litsch, well…as a #5 starter he’s just fine.

In the bullpen, you know what to expect from Downs and Ryan. Frasor, too, for the most part. Camp and Carlson are overperforming question marks, but so were Speier and Downs at one point. Accardo has four good outings in a row under his belt after a poor start. And Brian Tallet…well, who knows how that guy ticks?

Look at those lists. The only real question marks are with replaceable players (Litsch is backed by serious AAA starting pitching success, we don’t need Carlson as a 4th lefty if he were to struggle, and Camp is easy to replace as the 25th man on the roster).

Everyone knew heading into the season that if the Jays were to be successful the pitching staff would have to repeat its out-of-nowhere 2007. Check, so far, and I really think you can continue to check that criteria off for the rest of the season. This pitching staff is for real.

As for the hitters…hey, at least Rios is hitting, and I hear Josh Phelps is available. (It’s not really that bad…the bats should heat up…they can’t be that bad all season…right?)