Title: Gary Roberts Wednesday – Reed Johnson
Date: May 28, 2008
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: ODC writer Stu had a weekly feature spotlighting an under-appreciated player, and when he couldn’t turn one in for this week, I made a mockery of it by doing a fake-GRW about Reed Johnson. It’s a tongue-in-cheek feature highlighting how some “old school” baseball mentalities can really overrate a specific class of player, in this case, Johnson.
Stu is unable to present a GRW today. Thus, in his absence, I’ll be taking over for the second time. Stu will return next week with a live report from Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Sick with it, for sure.
Anyways, last time I subbed in for GRW, I highlighted Eric Hinske. Some people didn’t take it seriously, but allow me to remind you that he’s a solid contributor on a winning team – the D-Rays are winning the AL East right now, and Hinske has put up a dandy .257/.342/.542 with 10 home runs, 27 RBI, 4 stolen bases, and a 141 OPS+ (meaning he’s 41% ahead of an average player at this point). Pretty sick, right?
Today…I have to concede something. I show a lot of disrespect and negligence towards this particular player, despite everyone constantly showering him with hugs and kisses and proverbial handjobs. His spectacular defense, grit, hustle, facial hair, pretty eyes, and better-than-they-seem offensive numbers make this man a serious piece of any potential championship puzzle.
I’m talking, of course, about Reed Johnson.
got you, didn’t I?
Sorry, but this is the first ever mock-GRW. Reed Johnson is one word if nothing else: overrated. Why does everyone love this guy? It’s easy. He’s everything old school or casual baseball fans look for in a player. Unlike Dmitri Young, Jack Cust, C.C. Sabathia, or countless others, Johnson looks like a ballplayer. He feels like a ballplayer. He smells like a ballplayer.
It starts with the pants. They’re always dirty.
Then the facial hair. It’s manly, and reeks of baseball superstition.
And then the fielding. Despite missing a lot of balls he dives for, Reed is usually on the highlight reel once a week for a great catch. (Don’t get me wrong, he’s an above-average outfielder for sure, but highlight catches don’t make you a gold glover alone.)
And he gets hit by pitches. At a rate greater than all-time leader Craig Biggio’s. 88 times in 652 games, to be exact, with a whopping 8 already this year.
And finally, the offense. His numbers just scream baseball player.
Oh, wait, they don’t. Reed Johnson, on the offensive side of the ball, is terribly…average. If that. By all accounts, Reed Johnson is…gasp…not a good baseball player. Defense aside (which, again, to be fair, is his best area), Reed is nothing special. He’s a banjo hitter, at best, meaning he’s best suited for the bottom third of the order. He’s a guy who can bunt a little bit, has moderate speed, but won’t hit for much power or a good average. Let’s explore, then, why most people feel he’s deserving of a real Gary Roberts Wednesday.
In 2006, with the Toronto Blue Jays, Reed hit .319/.390/.479 with 12 home runs and 8 stolen bases. All of those are career highs, by far, and are nothing spectacular to begin with – they are numbers deserving of a lead-off spot on a team devoid of speed, or possibly the 2-hole, but they are nowhere near write-home-about numbers.
Outside of 2006, Reed has been way below average. That season, his OPS+ was an impressive 124, but it was his only season where he was above average. His career OPS+ is 94, meaning he’s 6% below average, but in the past two seasons he’s posted marks of 66 and 83, and in 2004 it was 79. Sure, last year he was hurt, but people are screaming his praises this year, too.
In a much-weaker National League Central, Reed’s numbers haven’t improved really on his mediocre Jays’ stats. His .261/.345/.359 is downright awful, he’s 1-for-4 stealing bases, and has just 2 homers and 8 doubles in 142 at-bats. He also strikes out twice as much as he walks, though I’m not a strong believer in the importance of strikeouts on the offensive end. Oh…he also doesn’t have an assist yet, despite claims that he has a pretty good arm (he does, it’s just not superb as some would have you believe).
So why do Jays’ fans miss him so badly, and pine for the days of a lead-off hitter who hits .270?
Probably because his replacement crew hasn’t done well, either. To replace him, the team has employed Braw Wilkerson, Shannon Stewart, Matt Stairs, and Adam Lind, with occasional starts by Joe Inglett, Kevin Mench, Buck Coats or Marco Scutaro. The team’s production from the left field position so far has been .232/.305/.303 with just 1 home run and an atrocious OPS+ 63. For some reason, no Jay can hit when they play left field (to be clear, only Wilkerson’s overall number are as bad as that never-walk line).
The Jays cut Reed largely to save on his contract, which was worth over $3M. Instead, they’re paying Mench and Wilkerson a prorated share of the veteran minimum ($380,000), Stewart $1.5M, and Lind the rookie minimum, since he hasn’t reached his arbitration years yet. In total, they are paying about $2.25M, savings of over $0.75M. It doesn’t seem like much, but:
a) It’s a chance the team took, and it hasn’t really paid off.
b) Reed’s numbers are hardly better, keep in mind, so it’s still savings.
c) Shannon Stewart has heated up recently, hitting .294 this month.
And finally…Reed was supposed to be the right-handed half of a platoon with Matt Stairs. Reed is hitting .250 against righties with just 5 extra base hits in 84 at-bats. We’re not talking just as bad as the current crop of left fielders.
So if you’re going to complain about the Jays’ left field situation or pine for Reed Johnson or claim he’s just freakin’ awesome…keep in mind that Johnson is below average…maybe average if you include defense…but he’s nothing more than that.
Blake Murphy Sports Writing 