Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Buehrle’s Perfect Game and the Fantasy Impact
Date: July 24, 2009
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: After Mark Buehrle tossed a perfect game, I took a look at how little of an impact such a singular spectacular performance would have on a fantasy team.

Yesterday afternoon, Mark Buehrle threw the 18th perfect game in Major League Baseball history. This, just 27 months after he posted a no-hitter, making him only the sixth player ever to do both. Buehrle went 27-up, 27-down with a potent Tampa Bay Rays lineup, striking out six. The perfect game was made possible by Buehrle’s control, his composure, and, well, this…

Big League Stew called it the web gem of the decade. I’d call that an understatement.

Buehrle’s final line is a staggering 9.0IP, 0H, 0ER, 0BB, 6K. Truly, it is one of the greatest performances on the mound that baseball has ever witnessed. This is no exaggeration – read this article’s first sentence again. And while I’m proud to say that I own mark Buehrle on my fantasy team, I have to regretfully inform you that a perfect game, for fantasy purposes, isn’t anything special.

I mean…it clearly is, and I’ll be gloating about it. But my point is that nine perfect innings over an entire fantasy season, especially one in a league with no innings limit, is a small blip. The fantasy season rewards consistency and long-term success over single-night greatness, as evidenced by the following:

My ERA this morning: 3.30
My ERA right after: 3.27
My WHIP this morning: 1.19
My WHIP right after: 1.18

So it clearly helps, as every strong start does, but so far I’ve logged 1193 innings pitched (which, by the way, makes it shocking that my sterling ERA is only good for 2nd place and my WHIP holds a narrow lead for 1st). But a perfect game is clearly a phenomenon more for the real world than the fantasy realm.

I should admit, too, that I’ve been trying to trade Buehrle for weeks to no avail. While his surface numbers are phenomenal (10W, 3.28ERA, 1.10WHIP, 76K), his peripheral stats have had me worried for some time. Heading into yesterday’s start, his FIP was 4.46 and his xFIP was 4.43, one of the largest FIP-ERA gaps in the league. Obviously, Buehrle is due for a regression (by the way, a six strikeout perfect game will likely increase that FIP-ERA gap by lowering his .270 BABIP even further).

However, I may be missing something here. We all may be. Whether it be because of his groundball tendencies (roughly 45% ground balls for his career), his quick work (some effect on strand rate, perhaps?), or something else at work, Buehrle’s ERA has outperformed his FIP in every season of his career except one. The same goes for xFIP. For his career, Buehrle has a 3.78ERA against a 4.16FIP, which would make him one of the league’s “luckiest” pitchers year after year.

Taking Buerhle off the block at this point may be a bad move for me – his (x)FIP-ERA gap is large even by his own standards, and this is made more important by the large number of innings he produces (if his rates regress over a large number of innings, the impact is greater). Still, how can you shop a guy who just threw a perfect game?

It may be short-sighted on my part, but yesterday’s gem has me thinking his rate stats are sustainable in the face of better math. I mean…a perfect game!

—
Here is a really nice article from ESPN’s Jon Greenberg on the occasion and Buerhle himself.

I’m also on Twitter. You can follow me here.