Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Just How Bad Has Vernon Wells Been?
Date: July 27, 2009
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: This article now seems a couple years ahead of its time, but believe it or not Vernon Wells has been struggling since way back in 2009. I dove into the stats to see just how rough the year had been for the former Gold Glover.

The Roy Halladay Trade Saga has brought a great deal more attention to the Jays in recent weeks than they are normally afforded. Naturally, the extra light on the Jays in general has brought extra light on a few Jays in specific. While the trade winds have also picked up for Marco Scutaro, Scott Rolen, and the whole bullpen, the trade speculation has included Vernon Wells in a roundabout way.

Mostly, people have wondered if the Jays could possibly package Wells’ albatross contract with Halladay. Doing so would save the Jays a fortune over the long haul, open up an outfield spot for a prospect (presumably one received in a trade), and give the team a chance to rebuild almost instantly with no bad contracts.

Unfortunately, the reason there is little substance to this pipe dream is that Vernon makes a lot of money for very little production. The Toronto media hasn’t been kind to Wells this year or in years past, but just how bad has he been? Has he been straight up awful, or just mediocre in comparison to his large price tag?

The following chart shows some of Wells’ key offensive metrics over his career. Obviously, this is not a great year for Vernon. The key stat here is his OPS+ sitting at 88 – what this means, basically, is that Wells has performed at 12% below the league average, controlled for season and park factors. His wOBA (weighted On Base Average) also sits 24 points below the league average.

The stat most will tend to focus on is the BA RISP, his batting average with runners in scoring position. .170 is an atrocious mark, but analysts tend to assume this regresses to a league average level for most players. This is likely true for Wells, which should help his terrible RBI total. There are some positive signs for Wells, also, as his extra-base hits total isn’t far worse than any but his best seasons. While his home run total (on pace for about 17) is not what you would expect from a middle of the order hitter, he is on pace for a career high 21 stolen bases.

The bigger concern, in my eyes, comes on the defensive side of the ball. A former Gold Glove award winner, Wells’ performance in center field this year has been downright awful. Long accused of being lazy or highlight-seeking, it’s been months since we saw a great Wells grab or any hint of what made him “The Man With the Golden Glove” (see: worst commercial ever). While fielding stats are still in their infancy, they tend to agree on Wells. The Hardball Times’ Arm Runs has always viewed Wells as below average, costing the Jays about two runs per year. His UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), the most cited defensive statistic, tells a greater story – While Vernon once added as many as 12 runs per 150 games (2004), he has been downright awful the past two seasons. His UZR for 2008 was -14.3 (essentially costing the Jays 14 runs, or 1.4 wins, with his glove). In 2009, it is -21.4 (21 runs, or 2.1 wins), and this is a counting stat so he’s really on pace to cost the Jays three wins with his glove alone. To put this in context, this metric ranks Wells as the worst fielder in baseball by a huge margin over any other player. He has currently cost the Jays 0.6 runs more than any player, at any position, has cost any team in 2009. From Gold Glove to the worst fielder in the league, Wells has fallen a long way (an article for another time: why the heck isn’t Rios in center?).

Obviously, no matter how you spin these numbers Wells has underperformed, compared to his own standards and his contract. But the effect is magnified by the seven year, $126M contract Wells is currently enjoying. While he technically only makes $1.5M this season, he is due $124M over the next five seasons, a terrifying average of nearly $25M a year. This is a scary figure for even the best players on even the richest teams. For what appears to be a below league-average contributor, the superstar salary is a huge problem for the franchise.

Wells has shown his ability to play like a superstar (2003, 2006), but he has also shown a penchant for taking entire seasons off (2005, 2007, 2009). For this contract to be movable, or more likely, for the Jays to get even a modicum of value for it, Wells will have to start playing at the top of his game…like, now. Whether his peak seasons even exist as a potential performance level anymore seems unlikely – ZiPS projects Wells to improve only moderately (.323 wOBA) by the end of the season.

Wells has been worth -1.0 WAR (wins above replacement) based on -4.6 runs at the plate, -20.4 runs in the field, and -9.6 overall runs above replacement. He ranks as the 26th worst hitter, the worst fielder, and the second worst player overall (behind Jose Guillen, although this is based on playing time since these are counting stats….really, Wells is the second worst everyday player) in baseball. At $1.5M, this is disappointing, at $25M I want to cry.

—
I’m also on Twitter. You can follow me here.