Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Matt Kemp and the Batting Order Question
Date: July 30, 2009
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: It may seem odd now that he’s a candidate for Best Player in Baseball, but in 2009 manager Joe Torre didn’t know what Matt Kemp was, juggling him around the lineup and generally mis-using the star-in-waiting.

The Dodgers sit at 62-35 right now, good for first place in the AL West. They have a sizable lead in the division, up a full nine games on second place Colorado, giving them an 86.9% chance of winning the division. Their chances of making the playoffs sit at 96.7%. The Dodgers are eighth in runs scored, first in ERA, and appear to have no real weaknesses in the lineup or pitching staff.

The Dodgers are widely assumed to be primed for a great playoff run. Lead by Joe Torre, a man with loads of playoff experience, I agree that the Dodgers have a damn good chance at a World Series run.

Still, I have a question for the man who has killed more middle relievers than Tommy John Surgery and Regression to the Mean combined, Joe Torre: why the hell is Matt Kemp batting 8th?

Now, based on elaborate studies over the course of time, the conclusion on batting order appears to be that it doesn’t have a huge impact on outcome. While it does matter to some degree (ordering by ascending OBP increases winning percentage by about 2.1% over a descending OBP batting order), the conclusions of a Retro Sheet study found that the traditional batting order thinking isn’t necessarily correct:

“And the difference between the best and the traditional lineup is negligible: in the NL it amounted to 0.38% more runs (or about 3 runs a season) and in the AL it was 0.24% more runs. These results seem to agree with the long-held belief that the ordering makes little difference.”

And from Beyond the Boxscore:

“Lineup order is not vital, but I’ve seen simulated teams jump up 3-4 wins with this optimization.”

Regardless, no study will conclude that one of your best hitters should hit 8th. From Beyond the Boxscore, again:

“8. This is the worst hitter in the lineup. If it’s the pitcher, he goes here, unless it’s Dontrelle Willis or Jason Marquis or someone similar. This is because you’d rather not put the pitcher close to two of the best hitters in the lineup: the 1 and 2.”

So Joe Torre, seriously, why has Matt Kemp hit 8th 18 times, 7th 41 times, 9th 3 times, and 6th or above only 31 times? 256 of his 394 plate appearances have come hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. Granted, his OPS is a staggering 1.235 in the eight-spot, the sample sizes are too small in other order spots to conclude that Kemp is a better hitter at the bottom.

Especially now that Manny Ramirez’ potent bat is back in the middle of the lineup, it is crucial for the Dodgers to fill the basepaths with RBI-in-waiting. Ramirez has started at the third spot in the lineup exclusively this year – to me, this says that Kemp hitting 9th would make more sense than him hitting 8th; at least then he would be on base for ManRam. As it is, I feel Kemp should hit in one of the first two lineup spots, or at least as protection behind Ramirez.

Among their eight regular starters now, Kemp ranks 2nd in OBP, 3rd in SLG, 2nd in OPS, and 1st in stolen bases. There is no excuse for him to be batting at the bottom of the order. Clearly, his OBP is valuable at the top of the order, and his SLG could be useful behind Ramirez to provide ‘protection’ or cash in additional baserunners. Based on Baseball Musings’ lineup analysis tool, Kemp should be batting 4th, with Ramirez actually batting 2nd (likely because of his huge OBP).

Looking at some of the top lineup matches, this model obviously spits in the face of standard baseball logic – batting Ramirez 2nd in most cases and the pitcher, curiously, in the six-hole. The model needs work, but the simulation still showed Kemp hitting no later in the order than 5th for the top-30 lineups.

Whether you’re an old school baseball fan that thinks speed alone belongs at the top of the order, a new school fan that thinks OBP should be at the top of the order, or a superstar-oriented fan that thinks good hitters should protect your superstar, everyone but Joe Torre seems to agree – there is no reason for Matt Kemp to be toiling away at the bottom of the Dodgers’ lineup.

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*Stats through Saturday July 25*

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