Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Five Tasks for the Blue Jays
Date: August 6, 2009
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: Late into a lost season, I highlighted five things the Blue Jays could focus on for the season’s final two months to mine some value out of the year.

The 2009 Blue Jays season is, for all intents and purposes, now inconsequential. While one can argue the morale value of playing spoiler for the Big Dogs down the stretch (and the Jays will have the chance, with a grueling remaining schedule), there are only a few goals that a 51-56 team in the AL East can have. So, with the official ‘seller/spoiler’ tag securely fastened to the black, blue, and silver, I took a look at five tasks the Jays should accomplish over the next 55 games.

1. Get Travis Snider Back on the Superstar Track
Entering the regular season, the hype around Snider was palpable. He came out of the gate on fire, but quickly fell into some bad habits and slumped. Whether it was over-thinking, bad luck, or just too soon, Snider looked out of place en route to a slash line of .242/.292/.394 for a sub-par .299 wOBA. It wasn’t unlucky, either, as his BABIP sat around the league average (.296) and his HR/FB rate was an acceptable 10%.

In May, Snider was jettisoned back to the minors to rediscover his stroke and clear his head. It was a temporary assignment, we were told, with an uncertain return date. Snider struggled immensely after being sent down, and then spent a large chunk of time on the DL with a nagging back injury that has plagued him for years. He returned a few weeks ago, and has been a house of fire ever since.

Snider’s AAA line at Las Vegas now reads .306/.404/.627, good for a very impressive 1.031 OPS. He has smashed 10 home runs in just 134 at bats, has walked far more than he did in the minors last year, and has slightly trimmed his strikeouts (though they are still a concern at roughly one a game for his minor league career). Over the past 10 games, Snider has hit .514 with four homers and 18 RBI, adding nine doubles and a triple for good measure. You’re reading that right – he has 14 extra base hits in his past 10 games and has more walks than strikeouts over that span.

Whether it’s a simple hot streak or not, Snider deserves another shot. The revolving door in left field has not settled on one of Russ Adams, Joe Inglett, David Delucci, or Jose Bautista. The Jays have received an OPS+ of 102 from left field, which is about par before you consider that the numbers are inflated by Adam Lind’s 170 OPS+ in 144 plate appearances there (33% of the team’s total PA in LF).

Adding Snider helps prepare the team for the future, but it can also help with that superficial ‘spoiler’ role – Snider would provide a bump in offensive production at the DH spot, improving the team’s 91 OPS+ there (and not by shifting Lind to DH from LF, as Snider’s UZR/150 is –10.2 compared to Lind’s –4.5, a story for another time).

It’s time to recall Snider.

2. See Which Young Pitchers Are For Real
I’m trying to figure Brad Arnsberg out. Every year he gets a ton of production from the unlikeliest of arms, maturing pitchers before their expected arrival dates and providing the Jays with strong pitching in the face of logic. At the same time, the Jays constantly have several young arms on the DL, leading one to wonder if Arnsberg is over-taxing these arms.

Regardless, the Jays will have some tough decisions to make in 2010 when it comes to the rotation. Halladay is a lock if he’s around, but after him there is a long list of candidates: Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Mark Rzepczynski, David Purcey, Casey Janssen, Robert Ray, and Brad Mills have all made starts this year; Shaun Marcum is due back soon; Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch should be ready at some point in 2010; and minor league prospects Fabio Castro, Davis Romero, Luis Perez, Randy Boone, Reidier Gonzalez, and Marty McCleary have all performed well enough to warrant a look in spring training.

Obviously, too many arms is a good problem to have, and you can’t add big bats in a city like Toronto without shipping off inexpensive and talented arms. Still, while controlling for innings limits and workloads, the Jays really need to take a look at a handful of these kids down the stretch to get a glimpse of who is ready for 2010.

Romero and Marcum appear to be safer bets, and some could end up in the bullpen, but with talk of a six-man rotation for the last few months I would love to see a few starts for Cecil, Rzepczynski, and Castro, with a second audition for Purcey and Mills.

3. Acclimate Lind and Hill to Their Future Roles
J.P. Ricciardi and Cito Gaston are in agreement that Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are likely to bat third and fourth, respectively, next season, and with good reason. Alex Rios and Vernon Wells have been huge disappointments, and Lind and Hill have been studs. Lind’s 140 OPS+ leads the team, and Hill’s comes in at 117.

With a keen batting eye (4.10 pitches per plate appearance), great extra base power (58 of 123 hits for extra bases) and a modest strikeout rate for a power hitter (17.3%), Lind is a great option in the three- or four-hole. With some managers liking a lefty in the two-spot, Lind at the four makes sense to keep them separated. Lind has been worth 22.4 batting runs in his transformation year, and hopefully he can be a middle-of-the-lineup staple moving forwards.

The case isn’t as clear with Hill. While his power has been tops among second baseman (26 home runs), his OBP is very low for a three-hitter (.331) and some of his peripheral numbers don’t support a sustained power surge (his HR/FB rate is more than double his previous career high). Still, Hill has been worth 11.7 batting runs this year, an impressive total.

Personally, I think Lind is the better three hitter, with Hill hitting fourth (or staying second), but a lot of the batting order for 2010 will depend on the leadoff spot and production from Rios and Wells. However, if Lind and Hill are expected to fill these roles next year, they might as well take them for a test drive this year.

4. Where Do the Kids Fit?
The Jays have most positions filled in nicely for 2010. Lind, Rios, Wells, Snider, Overbay, Hill, and Encarnacion appear to be fairly set in their contracts and positions. Marco Scutaro is an albatross at shortstop, but I don’t see the team throwing money at him when they can receive draft pick compensation for letting him go.

So the team’s lineup holes are at shortstop (obvious), third base (Encarnacion is likable but mediocre), and catcher (Rod may not be retained because of the youth in the system). So with two near-certain holes and another question mark, the Jays should probably take a look at solutions within the organization first.

Catcher: The Jays have long bragged about the catching depth in the system, so much so that they flipped Robinson Diaz for Bautista and let Curtis Thigpen walk to Oakland.

J.P. Arencibia hit .298/.322/.527 over stints at Single- and Double-A in 2008, and hopes were high for 2009. Unfortunately he has struggled at the plate, where he is supposed to make a living. His .228 average holds up a brutal .278 OBP, and while his isolated power is enticing at .192, he simply won’t be considered a top prospect until he can hit more regularly. He has struck out in nearly a quarter of his at bats, and his defense has always been considered just acceptable. Arencibia isn’t due for a call-up unless he rides a serious hot streak into September, but at age 23 there is no need to panic.

Brian Jeroloman is the system’s other top catching prospect. Heralded for his defense and arm, the question since he was drafted in 2006 has been about his stick. He hit well at Double-A in 2008 (.812 OPS) but struggled in a short Triple-A audition. This year he remained at Double-A (it would make no sense for him and Arencibia to split time at Triple-A), and it was a good call as he’s struggled at the plate. His .346 OBP is fine, but his SLG is just .345 because of his .233 average. Essentially he has an eye and some pop, but his awful 31% strikeout rate keeps the ball out of play too often.

It looks like the Jays might be better off investing in Barajas for another season, with a possible mid-2010 call up for one of the kids. But who knows, a third of a season is long enough for one of these two alleged studs to impress.

Shortstop: At Triple-A, journeymen have been the norm at short, with Russ Adams and Angel Sanchez splitting time with a few others lightly sprinkled in. Adams is gone and Sanchez is a 25-year old with little to his bat. At Double-A, Luis Sanchez has gotten most of the run but even this early in his career it’s obvious he has no bat. Justin Jackson, the most well known SS in the system, has struggled mightily at Single-A with a .590 OPS.

Here, it appears the best option may be to have someone change positions or look outside the organization. Moving Hill to short when he returned from a concussion would have made loads of sense since the system is stacked with second basemen (Brad Emaus, Jonathan Diaz, John Tolisano, Scott Campbell at the time, and even Joe Inglett), but I digress.

Third Base: Another position, another set of question marks. Kyle Phillips has done very well in Triple-A and at age 25 his clock is ticking. The same goes for 28-year old Kevin Howard. Finally, at Double-A (and briefly at Triple-A) 24-year old New Zealander Scott Campbell has played very well. Campbell came on the radar at Double-A last year when he hit .302 with a .398 OBP. He made the switch from second to third because of Hill’s presence, and it seems to have paid off – he’s been given a shot at Triple-A to see if his bat can play at a higher level.

5. Game Plan for 2010
Enough of these half-seasons determining whether you’re a buyer or seller. In 2008, the Jays sold fans on 2010. In 2009, they are not as optimistic, although there is no reason to be less optimistic than this time last year. Still, if the Jays are in full-on rebuilding mode, this should be a great offseason to unload.

Particularly, with a poor economy and fewer long-term contracts being given out, the fact that the Jays have a few cost-effective players with short-term deals should make them a trade target for better teams. Roy Halladay is the most obvious move, though it’s been debated, and would return a great deal of farm depth. Lyle Overbay has a year left and could be moved to make way for one of Brian Dopirak (1B, .962 OPS between Double- and Triple-A), Randy Ruiz (1B, 32-years old but has a .992 OPS and already has 101 RBI at Triple-A), or (eventually) David Cooper. A few of the bullpen arms and cheap young starters could net serious returns, as well.

Whatever the Jays do, complacency would seem to be a death sentence to mediocrity yet again. Whatever the plan ends up being, there needs to be a clear one.

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