Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Blue Jays Acquire Colby Rasmus in Whirlwind Deal
Date: July 27, 2011
Original Source: The On Deck Circle
Synopsis: All it took to get me going again was a blockbuster trade! With the Blue Jays shipping out multiple spare parts to acquire young, talented, but maligned center-fielder Colby Rasmus, I broke the deal it down piece by piece.

No lie, I was planning on writing today before the news broke. I had planned to start Part 1 of a three-part series updating my devoted readers (cough) on the state of the Blue Jays farm system at different levels.

Well, the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher-Cats took a hit today. See ya, Zach Stewart, it was nice while it lasted!

Jays Acquire Rasmus, Spare Parts Fly All Around
The big news of the day, of course, is that the Jays have acquired centerfielder Colby Rasmus from the St. Louis Cardinals as part of two trades (or a massive three-way, if you prefer to look at it as such). For the Jays, the trade essentially boils down to Colby Rasmus for Stewart, Marc Rzepczynski, and a potential type-B free agent compensation pick. I’ll break it down on a team-by-team basis momentarily, but for now…

This is something to be excited about.

Players like Rasmus very rarely go on the market, and even then it is usually as free agents, not arbitration-controllable 24-year olds. While Rasmus has his detractors (namely, Manager Tony La Russa, who recently claimed he doesn’t listen to coaches, and hinted he listens too much to his father), the fact remains that he has enormous upside, is still young, and is a controllable asset. In short, this is a player the team can continue to build with, and they gave up very little in tangible assets to acquire him.

Now in his third season, Rasmus has a pedestrian slashline of .246/.332/.420 for a .752 OPS on the year, with 11 home runs, 14 doubles, 6 triples, and 5 stolen bases. Those numbers are impressive when you remember that Rasmus is 24, but it’s actually a down year for him. In 2009 and 2010, Rasmus posted OPS’ of .714 and .859, respectively. Last year was obviously a break-out season for him, as he tallied 23 home runs and 12 stolen bases. This is a legitimate 25-homer bat with 20-steal upside, and someone who could be an All-Star caliber player in the very near future.

While fielding metrics don’t love his work in center, he should be a defensive upgrade over the Travis Snider experiment (which I was all for, but a natural CF is obviously preferred) and an offensive upgrade over Rajai Davis and his and his .267 OBP. According to Fangraphs, Rasmus rates out well as a baserunner, slightly above average with the stick, and slightly below average with the glove this season, but in all he’s added 1.4 wins above replacement (WAR) for the year. Last year, again his break-out season at age 23, he rated as 4.3 WAR, 8th among all centerfielders in the game.

Rasmus’ 2010 is a glimpse of what he’s capable of, and even the most pessimistic La Russa acolyte would be hard pressed to deny that he probably has better years ahead. For the second time in as many years, the Jays have gambled on a young, controllable player with alleged attitude problems, assuming they can be overcome within their clubhouse.

If any Jays fan isn’t happy about this acquisition, they are the kind of Jays fan that frets about the loss of a few mediocre bullpen arms potentially leading to more blown saves in 2011 (read: short-sighted) or doesn’t like players who appear to be, both on and off the field, gangster (he should fit in well with Brett Lawrie and Adam Lind in that regard).

Seriously….this kid is a MAJOR talent, and if all he needs is a change of scenery or slight attitude adjustment to fulfill his potential, this is a huge coup for the franchise.

The Deal as a Whole
Ahh yes, but the devil is in the details, they say. Taking from ESPN….

The Chicago White Sox traded pitcher Edwin Jackson and utilityman Mark Teahen to the Toronto Blue Jays.
The White Sox will receive reliever Jason Frasorand pitching prospect Zach Stewart.
A short time later Wednesday, the Blue Jays turned around and traded Jackson to the St. Louis Cardinals in an eight player deal that netted Toronto Colby Rasmus, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney.
The Cards sent Rasmus Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters to the Jays for Jackson,Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel and Corey Patterson.

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, the Jays are also flipping Trever Miller to the White Sox.

For the Jays, this means the following:
Out: Jason Frasor, Zach Stewart, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, and Corey Patterson
In: Mark Teahen, Colby Rasmus, Brian Tallet, and P.J. Walters

This is unbelievable. Ignore that Teahen has a bit of an albatross contract (it expires next year, no big deal). You can ignore Tallet and Walters for the most part, too, as they are bullpen arms coming back to Toronto to balance out rosters and salaries to a degree. Tallet, if not shipped elsewhere, will resume his 2006-2010 role as the Jays long man, and Walters will slide into an early-inning relief role or head down to Triple-A. Walters is young at 26, but isn’t looked at in high regard, and Tallet, as you’ll remember, is a bag of shit. So it’s Rasmus and spare change.

As for what’s heading out….well, to start, this is exactly why guys like Frasor, Dotel, and Patterson have value. They are not signings or additions anyone gets excited about, but there is always a market for relief pitchers at the deadline, and capable 4th outfielders are the perfect throw-in. St. Louis adds some much needed bullpen depth, an outfielder to replace Rasmus, and they get Edwin Jackson from Chicago (via Toronto first) to shore up a hopefully playoff-bound rotation that is missing Adam Wainwright. The deal also allows them to move Kyle McClellan back to the bullpen, meaning they’ve upgraded three bullpen spots and a rotation spot (albeit while taking a significant OF downgrade in the short- and long-term). For the Jays, neither of the three were going to be back next year in all likelihood, although they do lose the potential compensation pick for Frasor’s type-B status (Dotel was unlikely to decline arbitration, so the Jays would have had to risk paying him about $5M to try and get the pick).

I think I’m higher on ‘Zep than most, but even then I can’t see him being anything more than a Scott Downs type. Obviously, Downs is a great player and incredibly reliable bullpen arm, but in a trade like this you can’t really fret over 60 good innings out of the bullpen (or in a less optimistic scenario, a LOOGY). Sucks to see him go, but well worth the price.

Stewart, the #44 ranked prospect in baseball coming into this year, was acquired with Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Roenicke in the Scott Rolen deal. While he has shown some promise, including an impressive MLB debut, his stock seems to have fallen with an up-and-down year at Double-A and two rocky MLB starts following said debut. He may end up being a #2-starter, but some see him as more of a #4 or a top-end reliever (he has four good pitches, he’s a starter, the end)….I was optimistic, but the farm system is stocked with arms from Double-A down, so other than losing a nearly major league-ready arm, this is a loss that can be handled with relative ease.

Not sure why the White Sox would take just Miller, Stewart, and Frasor for a mid-rotation starter in Edwin Jackson, but they must either be very high on Stewart, or extremely confident in Phil Humber maintaining his success and Jake Peavy maintaining his health, or they’re clearing salary for a big move.

The Deal From the Jays Perspective
Huge win. Huge. Essentially, this is Zep, Stewart, and the compensation pick from Frasor for Colby Rasmus. This is incredible value. For the second year in a row, the Jays have plucked a young, talented, controllable player (Escobar, Rasmus) for parts they had brought in for exactly that purpose. Great job by Alex Anthopolous all around here.

Finally, Some Thoughts from Around the ‘Net…

Drunk Jays Fans: “If that’s all it took… if Anthopoulos just treated MLB GMs like they were the computer in a video game and traded Jason Frasor, Zach Stewart, Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel for Colby Rasmus… holy fuck.”

Keith Law, ESPN: “The Blue Jays give up four arms, at least three of whom are just relievers, plus a fringy big leaguer in Corey Patterson, and receive centerfielder Colby Rasmus plus about $7 million of dead weight in the shape of Mark Teahen, who has hit .259/.319/.397 since the start of 2008 and probably belongs in the Atlantic League. Rasmus is a potential star, a classic buy-low opportunity on a talented player who had fallen out of favor with his current organization but still has impact-player ceiling. Rasmus has star-level tools: He’s a plus runner with good range in center who needs to work on his reads, shows good bat speed, has average to above-average power and a very good approach at the plate. However, he has not played well with the Cardinals’ coaching staff, and that relationship has devolved over the last year into public sniping from both the coaches and from Rasmus’ father, who remains a major influence on Colby’s hitting, especially on his swing.

As an outsider, I can’t tell you how much blame lies on either side, but La Russa does not suffer young players gladly, and getting Rasmus out of St. Louis to see if he can succeed in a completely different environment makes plenty of sense, especially since the cost for Toronto is one good prospect and a bunch of relievers. Rasmus was worth over 4 wins last year per Fangraphs’ wins above replacement despite being misused much of the year and showing up as a below-average defender in center, which I don’t expect him to be long-term. He’ll slide Travis Snider back to a corner, and should no longer have to worry about where he’s hitting in the lineup or whether he’s in it at all. The acquisition has some risk, as it’s possible Rasmus has peaked or just doesn’t have the makeup to get along with any coaching staff, but I doubt either of those things is true. And over the long haul you always want to bet on high-upside talent when you can.”

Joe Pawlikowski , Fangraphs: “Dealing Jackson saves the Sox only $2.75 million, but adding in Teahen brings that figure to nearly $10 million in the next two years. Because the Blue Jays were willing to take on salary, they were able to acquire both players for the relatively cheap cost of Frasor and Stewart.” … “Rasmus is the gem of this trade, as he’s under team control through 2014. He’ll get a bit more expensive after this season, since he hits arbitration for the first time, but the Blue Jays are pretty well set in the payroll department. “

Anthopolous has a meeting with the media at 4pm. And I should get back to work.