Blake Murphy Sports Writing

Title: Sifting Through the Cap
Date: March 6, 2008
Original Source: Hoops Addict
Synopsis: After the semi-success of The ODC, thanks to Trev and Ryan McNeill I was able to branch out and began writing for Hoops Addict as well. Most of my work from there has since been lost from a server change-over they undertook, though I was lucky to find my backups. This article was a look ahead to the 2008 offseason and the cap situations around the NBA.

The first thing you should know about me now that I’m writing here at Hoops Addict is that I’m a business guy. I’m foremost a sports fan, but I realize that sports is an industry largely driven by money.

So when I was preparing an article the other day, I was, no surprise, examining the salary cap numbers for this coming offseason. In doing so, one truth became evident – nobody has any money to spend this summer. Using the great Hoops Hype Salary site, I prepared the table you see below. The table shows the salary space each team has this summer, the number of roster spots filled by that salary figure, and the amount they can spend before hitting the luxury tax threshold.

Take a close look. 13 teams are above the cap. Another seven are within the expected mid-level exception figure. Only three teams could offer a player a maximum contract, and each of those teams has at least one high-profile restricted free agent to re-sign. On top of this, teams have draft picks to sign with no negotiating room, since the NBA utilizes a rookie contract scale. Depending on where you pick, you can add between $1.5M and $3M to that figure.

Sure, there are a few ways around this. Sign-and-trades exist and give teams the opportunity to both acquire players they couldn’t otherwise and get something in return for departing free agents. The mid-level exception also exists, allowing teams to spend the league’s average salary on one player or spread it across several. Finally, you can sign as many minimum contract players as you like, with a bi-annual ‘double minimum’ exception. But all of this still counts towards the luxury tax.

So what does this all mean?

Well, it means that there won’t be a lot of money thrown around this offseason. Logic and smart business sense would suggest that teams and players alike will choose to excercise options (an assumption of my table), and most free agents will be looking for one-year deals for the mid-level exception. If I’m a restricted free agent this summer, I’m signing my one year qualifying offer, biding my time, and hitting the free agent market in 2009 when most teams have a great deal more cap space. If I’m a team this summer, I’m not overpaying for fringe players just because the market is bare, and I’m not sacrificing future cap flexibility for a patchwork solution.

My table lists the restricted free agents each team has to sign, as well. This list includes some marquee names, but it seems probable that most will sign their qualifying offers since no other team can offer them much money. It also means that most teams will be razor close to the salary cap or luxury tax line when the real free agent period begins.

Looking quickly at some of the top potential free agents this year, I have to feel for them.

Players who can opt out, but probably won’t: Shawn Marion, Elton Brand, Baron Davis, Allen Iverson, Corey Maggette, Jermaine O’Neal, Ron Artest

The one who probably will: Gilbert Arenas

The only big unrestricted free agent: Antawn Jamison
It seems unlikely that anyone will pay Jamison a max deal, and the first group are probably better served waiting until a team not named Memphis or Charlotte has serious cap space. Arenas could command big money, especially if the Bulls let Ben Gordon walk or the Sixers decide to take a gamble, but even his earning power will be restricted by his knee injury.

That leaves Jamison, some key restricted free agents who will probably have their offers matched, and a mediocre group of unrestricted free agents (highlighted by Ricky Davis and Antoine Walker) all vying for mid-level exceptions from bad teams or teams willing to cross the luxury tax line.

2008 is going to be a bad summer for fans of the NBA free agency period. It’s unlikely that most of the key free agents will opt out, your favorite team probably doesn’t have any money to spend, and the league may be worn out when it comes to selling superstars for 50 cents on the dollar.

Don’t fret, though. This is all leading to three entertaining scnearios:

1. An offseason that could include a large number of small trades. Suddenly 2009 expiring contracts like Rasho Nesterovic, Eric Snow, Malik Rose, and Bobby Simmons have serious trade market value.

2. A very active February in 2009, for the same reasons as above. Championship contenders could find themselves dealing valuable expiring deals for that last missing piece.

3. The most entertaining summer ever in 2009. Half of the league will have significant cap room and there will be a huge cohort of big name free agents. Interesting, too, is that a few select teams will be posturing for the following offseason when LeBron, Wade & Co. can opt for free agency.