Big Contracts: Year One

Title: Big Contracts: Year One
Date: March 10, 2016
Original Source: Paul Sporer’s Starting Pitcher Guide
Synopsis: I contributed an essay to Paul Sporer’s excellent annual Starting Pitcher Guide for the 2016 fantasy baseball season, looking at how free agent pitchers perform in the first year of new contracts.

There are few moments more exciting over the course of a much-too-long offseason than when a marquee pitcher comes off the market. After weeks, perhaps months of speculation and imagining how Big Lefty X would fit in Rotation Y, or how ballpark factors would impact the performance of Veteran Innings Eater Y, the news of a signing provides an opportunity for real analysis and, for one fan base at a time, the chance to rosterbate furiously.

But MLB’s free agent market has long comes with caveat emptor, with big-money contracts ultimately ranging from post-facto bargains to serious overpay. Certain skills – power, namely – are a little more reliable than others, and the pitching side of the market carries with it a great deal of risk, both on the performance and injury side.

Continue reading in The 2016 Starting Pitcher Guide.

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